Billy Wagner in Atlanta: A Perfect Fit?

With Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez's departures nearly a given in Atlanta, the Braves have to look towards the Free Agent market for their closer.

(Well, they don't have to, but who is going to trade away a legitimate closer this offseason?)

Names that jump out include Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Jose Valverde.

But combinations of ability and contractual issues make these guys relatively poor fits.

One name that has been established through various media outlets for the Braves, though, is Billy Wagner.

The 38-year-old lefty has drawn interest from various teams and, according to MLB Trade Rumors, is prepared to begin fielding offers next week.

The Hot Stove's beginning to heat up, no?

The one hitch that comes along with Wagner is that he is coming back from Tommy John Surgery.

But with a success rate in the 90's for TJS and a solid 17-game exposition (1.72 ERA, 26:8 K:BB, in 15.2 innings) at the end of the '09 season, the qualms many should have should be quieted a bit.

That's not to say that he should be given a $15 MM annual salary, it just means that the operation shouldn't stop anyone from making him an offer.

Anyway, here's a few reasons as to why Wagner makes sense for the Braves:


1. Despite his type-A (if the Red Sox choose to offer him arbitration), the Braves need not worry.

They'll be getting four picks from whomever signs Gonzo and Soriano, so that is not an issue.


2. According to David O'Brien, Wagner is a "FOC (Friend of Chipper) and has made it known that he'd like to pitch for Bobby Cox."

Does that necessarily mean that he'll take a discount?

No, but it does mean that the Braves have a little leverage over some other clubs.


3. He's only (39) saves away from John Franco for the all-time lead for most saves as a left-handed pitcher.

I'm not naming that for the novelty of having Wagner set a record in a Braves' uni.

I'm saying that that means that he'll want the ball.

Then again, Bob Wickman also wanted the ball...just only in save situations (but Wagner didn't record a save in his late-season return with K-Rod and Papelbon ahead of him and didn't complain, so...).



Are there better options on the market?

Yeah, and two of them will be departing Atlanta (most likely) in the coming weeks.

But there is no other option out there that makes as much sense for the Braves.

The team saw Peter Moylan succeed in '09 after his surgery, and I would expect Wagner to do the same.

The dude is still nasty, as evidenced by his K:BB above, and has always been "mean" enough to take the ball in the ninth.

Other clubs (Cubs, Tigers, other clubs with closer-holes since he doesn't want to be a set-up-only guy) may come knocking with more cash, but the Braves come knocking with Chipper, Bobby Cox's last go-'round, and a Championship-caliber rotation (and an offense that's primed to be the same once a move or two is made).

If I'm Frank Wren, I say "Hey Bean [Stringfellow, Wagner's agent and holder of the "best name for an agent in baseball" award], how does Billy feel about a two-year contract at $15 million guaranteed to play here in Atlanta?

"We'll even throw in a third-year mutual option and performance-based incentives each year along the way that could bring each up to...say...about $9 MM?

"C'mon."

(Okay, maybe the negotiations would go a little deeper than that...but you get my point)

Assembling the Atlanta Braves' 2010 Roster

For those of you who follow me, you know that I've been taking a close look at the Braves' offseason options over the past few weeks.

I made one swooping prediction/suggestion about a month ago.

And looking back now...I hate it.

And in another month, I'll hate this one.

But it's all in good fun.

So, let's recap what I've done (remember, I'm playing GM) thus far.

I'll highlight, in italics, the money associated with each move.


Players Acquired: Jorge Cantu (3.5 MM), Juan Rivera (3.25 MM), Jason Bulger (~400 K), Brian Sanches (~400 K).

Players Departing: Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Brandon Hicks, Randall Delgado, James Parr, a MiLB pitcher of the Marlins choice (combined for a total MLB impact of ~400 K), Kenshin Kawakami (the Braves would be eating part of his salary, so about $4 MM departing), Adam LaRoche ($7 MM)

That's a difference of -3.85 for the MLB payroll.


That's what I've done so far, now, let's talk about what'll be happening elsewhere on the Braves' roster.

Keep in mind now: the Braves had a payroll of about $96.7 MM in '09, and a significant rise shouldn't be expected.

Let's start out with the arbitration-eligible players (these are a what I would do).

Matt Diaz-- This one's really a no-brainer. Matt Diaz was a major part of the Braves' second-half run in '09 and has always been a more-than-serviceable fourth outfielder. Even with Jason Heyward at or near Major-League readiness, Matt Diaz will be an important piece to the Braves' puzzle. Coming off of a .313 year in which he slugged 13 homers and stole 12 bags, I expect a rise in his $1.2 MM salary...I'm thinking $2.5 MM for '10 (a rise of $1.3 MM).

Kelly Johnson-- This decision is a little tougher. Kelly Johnson plays hard...but plays so inconsistently that he makes you want to puke. That trait cost him his job to Martin Prado and does not bode well for a role as a bench player. I think he'll be non-tendered (he's not a Type-A or -B, so there's not point in risking him taking the offer) and his $2.8 MM salary will be off the books.

Boone Logan-- With Eric O'Flaherty stepping up and having an outstanding campaign in '09, Logan was a forgotten man. His 5.19 ERA may look scary, but he was more than passable as a straight-up LOOGY (with a .231 average against him from lefties). In most situations, I'd let a guy like Boone walk, but he's only 25 and has a good (not great) left-handed arm. He only made the league minimum (~400K) this past season, and with only 20 games to go on, I don't see how he could get much of a raise (in other words, no noticeable difference, just a guy who could make an impact in '10)

Ryan Church-- Ryan Church played well after coming over from the Mets. But, injuries got him at the end of the year, and his numbers (.270-ish with single-digit homers) and defense are easily replaceable (Jordan Schafer, anyone?). He and his $2.8 MM salary should be hitting the road.

Peter Moylan-- Do I really need to explain this one? He'll be back. His '09 salary was the league minimum, and I expect no less than $2 MM coming his way in 2010 ($1.6 MM increase).

Rafael Soriano-- Despite his performance in '09 (which was very good), I think Soriano will be too hot of a commodity on the free agent market for the Braves to retain (as in they'll try to sign him but someone else will outbid them--100+ Ks in ~75 innings is going to be in high demand). I think the Braves offer him a small increase over his $6.5 MM from '09, he'll reject it, and the Braves will get two draft picks when some one signs him.

Mike Gonzalez-- Like his late-inning partner in crime above him, Mike Gonzalez was very good for the Braves in the '09 campaign. He made $3.4 MM for his services and will likely stick his foot in the free agency waters. I can see the Braves offering him about $5MM before he rejects and heads towards FA. However, I would be willing to enter a mini-bidding war with other teams and use the team's potential to leverage him into a 2 year, $6.8 MM per contract ($3.4 MM increase). Oh, and I would hope he accepts the offer of $5 MM to stay, I'm just saying I would be willing to go to $6.8 MM on the open market (and we'll use that to tally the dollars).

All of these moves means a net of: -$5.6 MM (and two draft picks)

Oh, and lest we forget Garret Anderson's $2.5 MM salary coming off books along with Greg Norton's 800K.

That's a total of $11.95 MM to work with on the open market (arbitration changes and trade additions included).

Not too bad.

Now, in my world as GM, this is what we're looking at for the start of the '09 campaign (a + indicates replacing a hole left by a departing player, a ++ means a $400 K salary for a departing player player's replacement, ? means "could be exchanged for another ?"):

C Brian McCann
1B Jorge Cantu +
2B Martin Prado
3B Chipper Jones
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Juan Rivera +
CF Nate McLouth
RF Matt Diaz

INF Omar Infante
OF Jordan Schafer ++
OF Jason Heyward? ++
PH Brooks Conrad ++

Rotation
1 Tim Hudson
2 Javier Vazquez
3 Jair Jurrjens
4 Tommy Hanson
5 Derek Lowe

Bullpen
LRP Todd Redmond (exiting Medlen was the same)
RHP Jason Bulger
RHP Brian Sanches
LHP Eric O'Flaherty
LOOGY Boone Logan?
RHSU Peter Moylan
LHSU Mike Gonzalez
CL _____________

We've already established that Soriano will command quite a bit (my guess will be $10 MM-which some team will undoubetly offer him).

And the only viable option on the market is Jose Valverde (who will also cost a lot).

This one has me truly stumped.

Would you push harder to keep Soriano, or go hard after Valverde (or someone else).

You've seen the money the Braves have under my scenario, tell me what you think.

(Based on the results of this open-ended question, I will assemble my 2010 Atlanta Braves on a pretty little slide show--I really don't know what I should do)

With the Hudson Domino Set to Fall, What's Next for the Braves?

If you believe Dave O'Brien, Mark Bowman, and the ever so unreliable Ken Rosenthal, Tim Hudson is set to sign a three-year extension with the Atlanat Braves in the neighborhood of $27MM.
I don't know about you, but that's a big relief.
Locking up an elite (provided he looks like his seven starts at the end of '09) two or three starter for under $10MM is always good.
When you add in the fact that he's locked up for under the salary of two of your potential offseason trade chips (Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez), it's even better.
So that's one thing this offseason down...999,999 more to go, right?
Still, it's good to see one of the issues that was going to affect later moves get close to knocked out before the World Series even ends.
But now come the tough decisions.
Will the Braves try to re-sign Adam LaRoche?
Which of the three big chips (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami) will be on the outs--and for who?
What'll happen to Kelly Johnson, Boone Logan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano?
What guys will get their shots this spring?
These are all things to consider...even if it is only November (at least it will be in about two-and-a-half hours).
In an upcoming series, I will address all of these issues as if I were Frank Wren, and then I will give you my 2010 Atlanta Braves (for, what, about the 18th time?).