Musings on the Atlanta Braves with 11 Days Left Until Spring Training

As with many of the late musings, little has happened in Bravesland.

Well, I should say that little had happened transaction/real news-wise...the blogosphere always yeilds something to discuss.

This musing is a day late, so I did have time to find one big-time juicy nugget to work with.

With that said, I see no other direction to go other than right into the content...

First thing, the Braves' Caravan.

No. I am not from the Braves' PR Department.

But, let me tell you, this is quite an experience.

Even though the event I want to in Charlotte this past Wednesday didn't have the cream of the Braves' traveling crop (Peter Moylan, Brooks Conrad, Otis Nixon, Eric O'Flaherty, Terry Pendleton, Zane Smith, and Frank Wren--who is surprisingly short...I'm 6'1" and when he walked by me before the autographs started he was probably a little above my shoulder), just to see the people that you've admired and followed in person is pretty cool.

Maybe that feeling came from the fact that I've never gotten any kind of autograph before...but still.

If the Caravan is going to come anywhere close to you in it's final week, I would highly recommend that you attend...you get to speak to the players, to get them to sign your stuff, and (if you're fortunate enough to have the event you attend be at a Wild Wing Cafe) great food.

I mean, look at how much fun homer was having...

...as I filmed him on my low-quality cell phone camcorder (just so you know why the quality's so bad).

Oh, and, no, I wasn't skipping school...we had a snowday but the highways going from Winston to Charlotte were clear so a friend and I decided to go.

Second thing, what's with all the criticism of the Braves' rotation?

Now, this isn't the first time I've seen something like this quote I read from Mark Bradley's blog today.

But, it is the first time that I've seen an "expert" say this and I feel that this is a good base from which I can fully assert my opinions on this matter.

Here's the meat of Bradley's blog (which totaled 285 of his own words) in which he responded to/agreed wit Jon Heyman's analysis of the Braves' offseason:

"My two cents (hey, I’m cheap, too!): Even if the Vazquez trade helps the Braves down the road — I’m thinking of prospect Arodys Vizcaino — there was no way they should have surrendered the man who might well have been their Opening Day starting pitcher without getting a starting position player in return. (Cabrera is seen as a fourth outfielder.) And I don’t buy the argument that the Braves’ rotation will be just as strong without Vazquez.

With Vazquez, the fourth and fifth starters would have been Lowe, who even in a down year won 15 games, and Tim Hudson, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008. Without Vazquez, those two must move up a slot and Kenshin Kawakami, who won seven games last season, again becomes the No. 5 starter. I’m sorry, but that’s a downgrade."

Now, I'm not going to say that I have no idea where he's coming from with this...because I do.

This reaction (especially the part about KK only winning seven games last season...I'll go into more in a second) just strikes me as something that a very, very, very lazy person would write, though.

Not a paid sports journalist.

And I have some serious qualms with someone with the stage and "influence," if you will, of Bradley spewing something of this low of a caliber out (not saying that I'm the be-all, end-all of the Atlanta Braves or anything) without any real statistical backing.

I can tell you with full confidence that the 2010 version of the Braves' starting rotation will be just as strong and reliable as the 2009 version.

Timmy Hudson is a career 3.49 pitcher with 148 wins and served as (virtually) the Braves' ace from about 2006 until his Tommy John Surgery, posting 13, 16, and 11 wins in those seasons (with a 3.17 ERA through 22 starts in the 11-win campaign).

Right there is your replacement for Javy Vazquez who was due for a regression following a season in which he posted career bests in ERA, walks allowed, H/9, and HR/9 and his second best K total.

Jair Jurrjens is, simply put, Jair Jurrjens.

There's no reason his stuff, command, and mound presence shouldn't improve.

Tommy Hanson...see JJ.

He's young, his stuff's dynamic, and he didn't bat an eye against some of the best hitters the bigs have to offer.

Derek Lowe should gravitate back towards his career norms as Vazquez will.

I don't want to carry on for too long here, so I'll give you this link that gives you a nice, long explanation, if you care to read it.

Now we come to Kenshin Kawakami.

Even though the Japanese right-hander only posted seven wins last season, I'd like for you to examine this:

In the months of April, May, June, July, and August, Pitcher A started: 5, 6, 5, 5, and 5 games; posting an ERA of 3.38, 3.76, 1.98, 2.94, and 3.03; K totals of 42, 44, 39, 33, and 34; and 2, 2, 1, 3, and 3 wins in those months (this pitcher had 32 starts total).

Pitcher B started 4, 5, 5, 5, and 6 games with ERAs of 7.05, 3.03, 3.33, 4.72, and 2.87 with Ks totaling 18, 26, 16, 16, and 22 with 1, 2, 1, 1, and 2 wins (this pitcher had 32 starts total with some of his appearances in August coming in relief).

Pitcher C started 5, 6, 5, 6, and 6 games with 1.72, 3.38, 3.68, 2.09, and 3.65 ERAs, totaled 16, 24, 28, 25, and 29 Ks and had 2, 3, 0, 4, and 1 wins (this pitcher had 34 starts total).

Notice that if you throw out the highs and lows in ERA between A and B and do the same for strikeouts between B and C, you'll find that those pitchers (for either category) compare quite favorably.

It's obvious that Pitcher B was Kawakami, but when compared directly to Javier Vazquez (A) and Jair Jurrjens (C), he doesn't look too bad.

If he can continue to adjust to all of the factors that were working against him last season (culture and baseball), then he should only see improvement.

There's more to dissect in his blog, but I've already offered more in my rebuttal, if you will, than he typed up, so I'll stop with this here.

(That wasn't necessarily all about "calling out" Mark Bradley, it was more about this growing idea that the 2010 team lacks something the 2009 team had)

Last thing...

This isn't really so much of a "point," as much as it is a general question.

But, what's your favorite spring training facility?

I've only been to Legends Field (now Steinbrenner Field) in Tampa, but if I were to go back down, where would you say is the best place to see a game?

Atlanta Braves X-Factors: Derek Lowe

An X-Factor is, according to wiki.answers.com, an "unknown factor...which adds a a certain value to [an] object, element, or person."

(I know it's a general term, but bear with me...this is a poor attempt at a "hook" for this series)

For the Atlanta Braves, I believe there are several players (I think I've settled on five) that could easily have the word "X-Factor" slipped into their description for the upcoming season.

In the first edition of this series, I am going to be running up and down Derek Lowe and his potential impact on the team in 2010.

To avoid me rambling on for 200-300 words here, I think it's best that we go ahead and begin...

Last offseason the Braves, in haste following the less-than-pleasant departure of John Smoltz, inked then-35-year-old Derek Lowe to a four-year, $60 million deal to serve as the team's ace in front of the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami (who was signed shortly after Lowe), and one of two Tommy's (Glavine and/or Hanson).

And Lowe delivered...a 4.67 ERA with 111 Ks (to 63 BBs) while allowing a league-high 232 in 194.2 innings.

But hey, at least he...uhh...got 15 wins?

It doesn't take too much to recognize that Lowe had a pretty bad year...especially at $15 million.

It looked even worse next to his teammates who posted 2.60, 2.87, 3.86, and 2.89 ERAs (respective to the order I had above).

That's why the Braves did everything they could to dump Lowe off to a team willing to take on the majority of the right-hander's ace-like deal after they inked Tim Hudson to an extension.

But, when the Braves could find no takers, they had to move down to their other non-cornerstone, move-able starter and deal Javier Vazquez to the New York Yankees for Melky Cabrera and a pair of Minor Leaguers (Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino).

So, as it stands right now, the Bravos are heading into Spring Training with a rotation looking a little like this:

1 R Tim Hudson
2 R Jair Jurrjens
3 R Tommy Hanson
4 R Derek Lowe
5 R Kenshin Kawakami

And for 1, 2, 3, and 5, you have to expect some special things.

Hudson's just that much further away from Tommy John Surgery; Jair Jurrjens' and Tommy Hanson's dynamic arms should only come out with more firepower in '10; and Kenshin Kawakami only improved last year as he adjusted to the cultural aspects, ball, mound, and hitters of Major League Baseball last season.

Lowe, the guy that was expected to be the "given" for the Braves' rotation for the next three years when he signed last offseason, stands as the only real "iffy" factor in the Braves' rotation as we look upon it here two weeks prior to pitchers and catchers reporting.

So, what should we be looking for from Derek Lowe in 2010?

After all, he's not getting any younger and hitter's aren't going to be cutting he any slack.

Well, I have a couple of thoughts...

First thing, I'm expecting the sinker to be a little more effective this go-'round.

Last season, Lowe had the lowest ground ball rate of his career (well, for as long as FanGraphs has been keeping up with GB%) at 56.3%.

That's compared to (including last season) a 63.4% career rate.

If you recall, the Jon and Boog (who has been replaced by the utterly disgraceful Chip Caray) discussed Lowe "tinkering" with his grip on his trademark sinker because of the increasing "sloppiness" from using his other grip.

This was around late-June and early-July.

And if you look at his month-by-month ERAs, you can see where this tinkering worked a bit.

In April and May, the Michigan native had very Lowe-like numbers as he posted 3.10 and 3.76 earned run averages, respectively.

In June, his ERA jumped to a Jo-Jo Reyes-esq 6.54 ERA, his worst numbers of any month in which he started more than one game.

If he did indeed make the adjustments that I just mentioned around the time that I stated, then it shows, as his ERA fell down to a very respectable 3.38.

Now, in August and September, his three digits went back to 5.08 and 5.61.

There were probably a variety of reasons for this, as he was probably runnin' on empty and losing heart before ultimately becoming completely heartless (the first link is for classic rock lovers, the second for modern pop-rock lovers, the last for Kanye fans).

But, I think the biggest factors were cropping up on the tips of D-Lowe's fingers in the form of blisters developing from his "adjusted" grip on his sinker.

This season, given nearly five full months to fix mechanical and grip-based issues, I think we can expect Lowe to come close to logging of full season's worth of 2009's positive months while reverting to his usual plus-60 groundball rate.

Number two, Lowe's got a chip on his shoulder.

In an interview with Mark Bowman this offseason, Lowe expressed his displeasure with the trade winds blowing through his backyard.

After the Vazquez trade he spoke with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien and, basically, said that everything was in the past and he was excited about the upcoming season as he threw in a couple of other cliches that PO-ed ballplayers always use.

I don't know about you, but Lowe seems to have the personality conducive to turning anger into positive results.

That tenacity on the mound, you know.

I don't know the guy personally, so I cannot say that with certainty...but the TV tells me that it's there.

And if it is really there, then I think Lowe will have a very, very, very, (x10), strong season just so he can prove his critics wrong.

Cy Young?

Probably not.

But a strong veteran presence putting up better-than-league-average numbers?

Definitely.

To sum it up...

I'm not looking for Lowe to come in and dominate the league like his contract suggests he should (as he's making $1 million less than Justin Verlander's average salary shiny new 5-year extension in Mo-Town).

Those days are behind him.

But, I am expecting Lowe to come into with a fire inside and a nasty, non-blister-inducing sinker ready to join his fellow Brave starters in posting all sub-4.00 ERAs (you know, to make it a set).

If he can do that, I can live with saying "hey, if you average it out, JJ, Hanson, and Lowe average out to about $5 MM a piece...that's pretty reasonable" for another couple of years because that would mean that the Braves would have the best starting rotation in baseball.

Here's a toast to D-Lowe...

...as we move on to Troy Glaus in the next "Atlanta Braves X-Factors."

Chips on the Table: The Braves' "Tradeable" Players

So, we've already gotten through the Adam LaRoche situation.

Now, let's talk about the guys the Braves could be shipping out for some hole-filling.

Here, in my mind, are the guys on the block from the Braves' '09 payroll.

1. Derek Lowe
   Bad contract coming of a bad year; this one's pretty simple.
   But who would want him?
   Brewers? Cubs? Mets?
   You've gotta think "money-absorbing" over "talent-laden" in Lowe's situation when you're looking at potential suitors.

Yeah...that's pretty much it.

Coming off an 86-win season, you don't want to mess too much up.

Here are the potential "centerpieces" in deals for a middle-of-the-order hitter.

1. Javier Vazquez
   Spectacular career-year in '09, and, at this point, his value has never been higher.
   Why trade him then?
   For me, Vazquez's '09 is too much unlike his career numbers to tell me that he'll sustain it for an extended period of time.
   It's either address the team's needs now, or wait until mid-July when Vazquez may have a 4.00 ERA (on the same hand, he may have a 1.02 with another team and make me look like an idiot).
   You've gotta sell-high on this guy if you are given the opportunity to get a legit-hitter.
2. Kris Medlen
   It's not so much that Medlen would be a "centerpiece" as much as he would be a "very tempting piece to get the other guys to take less."
   He's young with a live arm and experienced success in his stint in the Big Leagues; or just what a rebuilding team with a large contract on the books is looking for.
3. Martin Prado
   Prado's situation, in my opinion, is like Medlen's and Vazquez's rolled into one.
   He wouldn't be the one guy that could almost get a deal done on his own as much as he is, when paired with another guy, an enticing entity.
   Add to that the potential for a one-and-done-year career, and you have another perfect sell-high opportunity.
   Yeah, he played hard, and yeah, he earned his keep, but if the, just an example, Cardinals come shopping Albert Pujols and say "We want X, Y, Z, C, and Martin Prado," you'd have to think about letting him go (and, yes, I know that situation would never come up).

These are guys that would be traded if and only if the right player were to come along.

I'd rather not see any of them traded, but, as the old baseball cliche goes, you have to give up value to get value.

Now come the biggest part in any trade talk: the complementary pieces.

1. Kenshin Kawakami
   Kenshin Kawakami is neither an elite pitcher nor an immaculate prospect.
   But what he is is a very solid three or four starter in any rotation outside of Atlanta, and that is something a lot of teams would be looking for in the trade market.
2. Cody Johnson
   Power? Check.
   K's? Unfortunately, also a check.
   Cody Johnson is a frustrating guy to evaluate.
   He's got a shot at being the next Adam Dunn, but he could also strike out 250 times.
   With Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer already on the verge of Major League readiness, this is a guy you'd have to call expendable, and if a suitor with a little time to spare in the outfield comes knocking, I'd let him go.
3. Brandon Hicks
   Yet another frustrating prospect.
   His bat has been projected as above-average and his defense as epic.
   So far, he's at the latter and struggling to make it to the former.
   Right now, he would be serviceable as a back-up middle-infielder and could become a lighter-hitting Yunel Escobar.
   You'd like to keep him as an emergency future-3B (catastrophic injury to Jones) or as an option at 2B down the road, but neither of these are things the Braves need at this juncture, so he is expendable,
4. This is going to be a small wad of pitching prospects that could have value in the right deal (in order of best-to-least-value):
   Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Todd Redmond, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes
   Here, I have potential stud, potential stud, good long-relief/5th-starter option, OK ceiling, and Jo-Jo.
   All are guys that could make-or-break a deal (OK, maybe I'm exaggerating about Reyes...but you get my point).

These are the guys that wouldn't catch the headlines in any deal, but they would mean a lot to the teams getting them.

As GM (this IS part of that series), this would be a relatively tough decision.

The talent the Braves have warming in the minors and the talent that's already roaming the Ted make you pause when you're looking at trades, but here is what I propose to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim as my one "blockbuster trade":

Right here.

Yeah, that's right.

I had the audacity to link an old article from Carolina Co-Op.

There, I outlined my ideas thoroughly, so you can read (it was written about two weeks ago, so some of the info is outdated).

Here, I'll give you the gist of what I said.

Braves Get: Juan Rivera, Jason Bulger
Angels Get: Kenshin Kawakami, Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado

Here, I will also just give you the Braves' perspective.

The Braves, while giving up a lot of talent, would be netting what they'll be pursuing this offseason in a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter (Rivera is a consistent .280/25 homer guy when he's been given his shots in crowded outfields) and a bullpen arm (Bulger is a little older, but he has potential).

Unable to find a taker for Lowe, I have also decided to keep him (JJ and Hanson kinda balance him out...right?).

So let's recap the moves by the Cameron Britt-run Braves thus far:

We've traded, all told, Kris Medlen, Kenshin Kawakami, Cody Johnson, Brandon Hicks, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado, James Parr, and a A-ball pitcher of the Marlins' choice for Jorge Cantu (new 1B), Juan Rivera (new LF), Brian Sanches (RHP), and Jason Bulger (RHP).

We've also retained Tim Hudson (as the real-life Braves did) and Derek Lowe, and let Adam LaRoche walk.

Next up: The other Free Agents to-be

With the Hudson Domino Set to Fall, What's Next for the Braves?

If you believe Dave O'Brien, Mark Bowman, and the ever so unreliable Ken Rosenthal, Tim Hudson is set to sign a three-year extension with the Atlanat Braves in the neighborhood of $27MM.
I don't know about you, but that's a big relief.
Locking up an elite (provided he looks like his seven starts at the end of '09) two or three starter for under $10MM is always good.
When you add in the fact that he's locked up for under the salary of two of your potential offseason trade chips (Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez), it's even better.
So that's one thing this offseason down...999,999 more to go, right?
Still, it's good to see one of the issues that was going to affect later moves get close to knocked out before the World Series even ends.
But now come the tough decisions.
Will the Braves try to re-sign Adam LaRoche?
Which of the three big chips (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami) will be on the outs--and for who?
What'll happen to Kelly Johnson, Boone Logan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano?
What guys will get their shots this spring?
These are all things to consider...even if it is only November (at least it will be in about two-and-a-half hours).
In an upcoming series, I will address all of these issues as if I were Frank Wren, and then I will give you my 2010 Atlanta Braves (for, what, about the 18th time?).

Another Angel in the Outfield: Making the Case for Juan Rivera in Atlanta

We all know what the Braves will be after this offseason (for those of you who don't, it's a right-handed power threat to stick between Brian McCann and Chipper Jones).

Right now, it's wide open as to who they'll go after.

So, let's compare two players.

One of these names, Player A, has been moving around the Braves' Blogosphere at the speed of light.

The other, Player B...not a peep.

I will use AGE (in 2010)/G/AVG/OBP/SLG/HR/2B/3B/SB/BB:K to compare them.


Player A 29/128/.260/.332/.524/33/21/1/20/49:118


Player B 31/138/.287/.332/.478/25/24/1/0/36:57


Who do you take?

Player A is going to give you more power, but Player B is going to make fewer outs.

OK, now take this into consideration: Player A plays the majority of his games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington while Player B does most of his work at Angel Stadium.

What about now?

I don't know about you, but I think I take Player B.

And now, if you haven't already figured out who they are, Player A is Nelson Cruz, and Player B is the man I referenced in my title, Juan Rivera.

Now, I understand that the "getability" of Rivera may be less than that of Cruz, but the Angel's one weakness at the start of this season was the readiness of their Minor League pitching prospects.


Add to that John Lackey's pending free agency (and likely departure), I think it's safe to assume that they'll be on the hunt for both Major League-ready pitching and Minor Leaguers to re-stock whatever they'll be losing to their big club.


With that in mind, here's a deal that could net the Braves Juan Rivera:



Angels Get: Kenshin Kawakami, Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado
Braves Get: Juan Rivera, Jason Bulger



This deal gives the Braves what they need: a good power bat (with a good track record for success) locked up at a reasonable contract-2/9 left on his current deal and the replacement for Moylan when he transitions to closer (my gut now says they they'll let Gonzo walk if he declines arbitration and they'll flat let Soriano go).


Rivera, especially with a transition to the NL, should be a lock for 25 homers, and 31-year-old Lawrenceville, Georgia native Jason Bulger should only improve on his numbers from this year (3.65 ERA/65.2INN/68Ks) with the same transition.


The Angels get a descent starter until some more of their youngsters are ready, a younger replacement for Bulger, a DH-in-the-making, and a very good pitching prospect to fill their previously mentioned voids.


The biggest complication I could see blocking this deal would be Bobby Abreu.


Right now, Rivera is pretty much a lock in left field for the Angels.


If the team fails to bring back Abreu, then his position would be solidified even further since their best OF prospect, Peter Bourjos, is still likely another season or two away.


However, if Abreu comes back to man right again next season, they may be willing to give one of their fringe outfielders more time OR may be willing to let go of Rivera for one of the more attractive free agents.


The Braves would be giving up a pretty significant chunk of their minor league stable, but would still be retaining their core of Heyward, Freeman, Hanson, Tehran, etc.


If the Braves ARE serious about contending in 2010, this deal makes a lot of sense.


As I will say in all of these posts (for the blog)/articles (for B/R), I have no insider information whatsoever.


Everything I say stems from personal analysis of rosters, rankings, etc., and my conclusions are based off of this analysis.


If you disagree or feel that one side or another is getting too much, let me know.


I'll consider all suggestions that I deem logical.