Atlanta Braves X-Factors: Billy Wagner

Who else remembers Billy Wagner's first appearance back from the disabled list last season?

Metallica's "Enter Sandman" blaring over the Citi Field speakers before the 5'11" (generously) lefty dismantled the Braves' eighth inning threesome of Reid Gorecki, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann (striking out the first and last dudes mentioned).

About an appearance later, Wagner was placed on waivers and traded to the Boston Red Sox.

All told, Wagner appeared to be "back," as he managed 26 Ks to eight walks in 15.2 innings while posting a sparkling 1.72 ERA.

With those stats as their sample, the Atlanta Braves jumped on Wagner as soon as he started fielding offers and inked the 38-year-old Virginia-native to a one-year deal that is set to pay him $7 million in 2010 (with an option for 2011 that kicks in if and when he finishes 50 games).

But, were those numbers flukes?

Did the Braves just throw away close to ten million dollars that could have been put to the, at least right now, questionable offense?

Will Billy Wagner come close to the pre-Tommy John surgery years?

To answer those questions, I'll say: "probably not," "no," and "sure, why not."

Wagner, upon his return, was throwing in the mid- to upper-90s as he had in his glory days (although, 100 was more the norm back in the day) with the same cutting slider and loopy curve that made him one of the greatest door-closers of all time.

Why would you expect Cowboy Billy to be anything less than what he was in '05, '06, '07 after that kind of showing?

Keep in mind that Tommy John Surgery has about a 93 percent success rate and we, as Braves fans, have seen the likes of Mike Gonzalez and Peter Moylan have a ton of success in the past two years following the ligament replacement procedure.

I look for Wagner to have a strong campaign with the Braves in 2010...and I have little doubt in my mind that he won't at least approach 40 saves for the club.

A 2.75-3.00 ERA with something like 95 Ks in 70 or so appearances seems like a fair bet for Wagner.

But, his potential for on-the-field success isn't the only reason for his appearance on my list of Braves X-Factors.

Not even close.

I'm looking at the impact he could have as a leader in the Braves' clubhouse.

Even though he has made some, let's say, obscure comments over the years, he seems to respect people who are accountable for their actions (not always prevalent in the Mets' clubhouse) and, by all accounts, carries out his business the "right way" (hustling out all of the spring drills et all).

In an environment where he'll be around up-and-coming relievers like Eric O'Flaherty, Jesse Chavez, Kris Medlen, and closer-in-waiting (and fellow short dude) Craig Kimbrel, you have to figure that his simple presence and apparent work ethic will leak into these guys and help out their performance in the majors.

If he can couple that sort of "mentorship" with his potential on the field this season, then I think we're talking about the steal of the offseason.

An anchor at the end of the 'pen and an exceptional teacher and influence?

For $7 million?

Eat your heart out (insert name of a GM/owner overpaying for any closer).

Now, to couple one of the most dramatic 9th inning presences of all time, I present one of the most dramatic songs of all time (and my personal favorite)...

Up next in this series, the man, the myth, the Hey...a top-to-bottom look at what Jason Heyward brings to the Braves in 2010.

Atlanta Braves X-Factors: Chipper Jones

This past season was rough, to say the least, for Chipper Jones.

The venerable Braves third baseman posted the lowest batting average (.264) and slugging percentage (.430) that his 16-year (including the eight games in '93) has ever seen.

The now-37-year-old Jones also saw his first sub-20 homer season as a full-time player.

In fact, '09 was so bad for the face (at least until J-Word starts tearing it up) of the franchise, that retirement talks were being floated by Hoss himself this offseason as he enters the first year of a three-year extension.

Even with these pint-sized numbers, the Braves as a whole really did not suffer the fate many would have expected with those abysmal numbers from No. 10.

They still won 86 games and were well within striking distance during the season's final weeks.

But, imagine what this past season could have been with the Chipper we've come to know and love over the past few years in Atlanta's three hole.

You know, that .320, 20 homer guy that slices up defenses with teardrop bloopers, screaming gappers, and the occasional 400-foot blast.

The guy that can carry the team when it occasionally finds itself sans-B-Mac, -Escobar, or -clean-up hitter.

Had you plugged that into the line-up the Braves featured in the second half of 2009, and we may be talking about the deep playoff run the Braves and their exceptional pitching staff had in the 2009 postseason...but I digress.

We all know what C. Jones means to the Braves.

He's the guy that leads all of the young guys with his actions and is always accountable for his actions...a true professional.

But, he is getting up there in age and is now looking down the barrel of Bobby Cox's final season...you know, his second father who has served as his only MLB manager.

You have to wonder if he can handle the pressure that's going to stem from 2009, Cox, and his birth certificate.

Because, if he can't, you're likely looking at another postseasonless season in Hotlanta.

This really is the dude that can push the Braves over the line of mediocrity if he can come in and post something close to the afore mentioned "norm" that Braves fans have come to expect from their aging star.

Personally, I think he's got enough in the tank to do something this season.

We certainly can't expect anything close to his '99 MVP season as a 27-year-old, and I don't think any of us really are.

But, when you consider the pressure a legitimate bat like Troy Glaus take off of Jones' shoulders (who has admitted to attempting to boost his power numbers with a "bigger," if you will, swing) and the work he put in this offseason to fix some flaws in his swing, you have to think that .290-.310 and 20-25 homers is well within the realm of possibilities.

If I had to put money down on it, I think .307 (that is his career BA) with 21 homers and an OBP in the neighborhood of .420 would be completely reasonable.

That average falls short of his '06-'08 and those homers would match his 2005 (when he batted .296).

He won't (and I think you can mark that down) set the world on fire...but he also shouldn't be the, let's say, anti-Chipper that we saw in 2009...at least I hope.

And...well...I can't think of any good way to slip this video in here other than to say that I really like the song...

Anyway, I think we'll be looking at Billy Wagner in our next edition of Atlanta Braves X-Factors...be sure to check back.

Atlanta Braves X-Factors: Eric Hinske

The Atlanta Braves, in what has proved to be their last notable signing of the 2009-10 offseason, signed a one-year, $1 million contract back in January.

And it really didn't send any sort of shockwaves through the Major League Baseball community.

A 32-year-old bench-rider signing a microscopic (relatively speaking, I'd love a million dollars) contract with Johnny Damon still on the market (remember, the rumors for him started churning about the time Hinske was signed before signing with Detroit earlier this month) isn't exactly going to make the pundits on MLB Tonight and Hot Stove rant and rave.

But, I don't think the lack of publicity this move received should be allowed to downplay the significance of it.

Think about it...

This is a guy that is going to be relied on to fill holes at first, third, left, and right whenever they may pop up.

And with the question marks being what they are at both corners of the infield with Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus' recent injury histories (even though Chipper led the Bravos in games played last season), you have to figure the Braves are expecting this guy to be ready at all times.

Oh, ad did I mention that he's likely to be the primary pinch-hitter?

Dude's got a lot on his plate.

That's why I'm expecting him to get into 90-120 games this season (15-25 at the hot corner, 15-35 for Glaus, 15-20 in the outfield, and 45-75 games as a pinch-hitter--depending on his playing time in the field).

And if he does that, then I think that we have to hope for more than the (granted, most of this was as a PH, though he did play 56 of his 93 games in the field at some point last season) .242 average, eight homers, and 52:27 K:BB ratio he posted last season in a season split between Pittsburgh and the World Champion Yankees (the third time in three years with his third different team that he's gone to the Series...confusing enough phrasing?...thought so).

His talent isn't what you could call elite, so I'm not calling on him to replicate his 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign in which he hit .274 with 24 homers and 13 steals.

But something similar to his 2006 when he split time between a near-full-time role in Toronto and a bench role in Boston and hit .271 with 13 homers from the left side of the plate in 109 games would, for me, be more than passable for any ailments the Braves' may suffer from at any of the corners in 2010.

No matter how many games he ends up playing, I believe that he's going to be pivotal in determining the Braves' October chances when he does get his chances.

Be they from the bench in the eighth and ninth or in the field when Chipper strains a muscle, his chances will be coming when the tension's tightest and pressure is highest...and his performance in those situations will, without a doubt, affect the outcome of plenty of games in Hotlanta this year.

Now, with the "pressure" segue out of the way, I'll get to work on the next X-Factor...Chipper Jones and his (hopeful) comeback.

Musings on the Atlanta Braves with 11 Days Left Until Spring Training

As with many of the late musings, little has happened in Bravesland.

Well, I should say that little had happened transaction/real news-wise...the blogosphere always yeilds something to discuss.

This musing is a day late, so I did have time to find one big-time juicy nugget to work with.

With that said, I see no other direction to go other than right into the content...

First thing, the Braves' Caravan.

No. I am not from the Braves' PR Department.

But, let me tell you, this is quite an experience.

Even though the event I want to in Charlotte this past Wednesday didn't have the cream of the Braves' traveling crop (Peter Moylan, Brooks Conrad, Otis Nixon, Eric O'Flaherty, Terry Pendleton, Zane Smith, and Frank Wren--who is surprisingly short...I'm 6'1" and when he walked by me before the autographs started he was probably a little above my shoulder), just to see the people that you've admired and followed in person is pretty cool.

Maybe that feeling came from the fact that I've never gotten any kind of autograph before...but still.

If the Caravan is going to come anywhere close to you in it's final week, I would highly recommend that you attend...you get to speak to the players, to get them to sign your stuff, and (if you're fortunate enough to have the event you attend be at a Wild Wing Cafe) great food.

I mean, look at how much fun homer was having...

...as I filmed him on my low-quality cell phone camcorder (just so you know why the quality's so bad).

Oh, and, no, I wasn't skipping school...we had a snowday but the highways going from Winston to Charlotte were clear so a friend and I decided to go.

Second thing, what's with all the criticism of the Braves' rotation?

Now, this isn't the first time I've seen something like this quote I read from Mark Bradley's blog today.

But, it is the first time that I've seen an "expert" say this and I feel that this is a good base from which I can fully assert my opinions on this matter.

Here's the meat of Bradley's blog (which totaled 285 of his own words) in which he responded to/agreed wit Jon Heyman's analysis of the Braves' offseason:

"My two cents (hey, I’m cheap, too!): Even if the Vazquez trade helps the Braves down the road — I’m thinking of prospect Arodys Vizcaino — there was no way they should have surrendered the man who might well have been their Opening Day starting pitcher without getting a starting position player in return. (Cabrera is seen as a fourth outfielder.) And I don’t buy the argument that the Braves’ rotation will be just as strong without Vazquez.

With Vazquez, the fourth and fifth starters would have been Lowe, who even in a down year won 15 games, and Tim Hudson, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008. Without Vazquez, those two must move up a slot and Kenshin Kawakami, who won seven games last season, again becomes the No. 5 starter. I’m sorry, but that’s a downgrade."

Now, I'm not going to say that I have no idea where he's coming from with this...because I do.

This reaction (especially the part about KK only winning seven games last season...I'll go into more in a second) just strikes me as something that a very, very, very lazy person would write, though.

Not a paid sports journalist.

And I have some serious qualms with someone with the stage and "influence," if you will, of Bradley spewing something of this low of a caliber out (not saying that I'm the be-all, end-all of the Atlanta Braves or anything) without any real statistical backing.

I can tell you with full confidence that the 2010 version of the Braves' starting rotation will be just as strong and reliable as the 2009 version.

Timmy Hudson is a career 3.49 pitcher with 148 wins and served as (virtually) the Braves' ace from about 2006 until his Tommy John Surgery, posting 13, 16, and 11 wins in those seasons (with a 3.17 ERA through 22 starts in the 11-win campaign).

Right there is your replacement for Javy Vazquez who was due for a regression following a season in which he posted career bests in ERA, walks allowed, H/9, and HR/9 and his second best K total.

Jair Jurrjens is, simply put, Jair Jurrjens.

There's no reason his stuff, command, and mound presence shouldn't improve.

Tommy Hanson...see JJ.

He's young, his stuff's dynamic, and he didn't bat an eye against some of the best hitters the bigs have to offer.

Derek Lowe should gravitate back towards his career norms as Vazquez will.

I don't want to carry on for too long here, so I'll give you this link that gives you a nice, long explanation, if you care to read it.

Now we come to Kenshin Kawakami.

Even though the Japanese right-hander only posted seven wins last season, I'd like for you to examine this:

In the months of April, May, June, July, and August, Pitcher A started: 5, 6, 5, 5, and 5 games; posting an ERA of 3.38, 3.76, 1.98, 2.94, and 3.03; K totals of 42, 44, 39, 33, and 34; and 2, 2, 1, 3, and 3 wins in those months (this pitcher had 32 starts total).

Pitcher B started 4, 5, 5, 5, and 6 games with ERAs of 7.05, 3.03, 3.33, 4.72, and 2.87 with Ks totaling 18, 26, 16, 16, and 22 with 1, 2, 1, 1, and 2 wins (this pitcher had 32 starts total with some of his appearances in August coming in relief).

Pitcher C started 5, 6, 5, 6, and 6 games with 1.72, 3.38, 3.68, 2.09, and 3.65 ERAs, totaled 16, 24, 28, 25, and 29 Ks and had 2, 3, 0, 4, and 1 wins (this pitcher had 34 starts total).

Notice that if you throw out the highs and lows in ERA between A and B and do the same for strikeouts between B and C, you'll find that those pitchers (for either category) compare quite favorably.

It's obvious that Pitcher B was Kawakami, but when compared directly to Javier Vazquez (A) and Jair Jurrjens (C), he doesn't look too bad.

If he can continue to adjust to all of the factors that were working against him last season (culture and baseball), then he should only see improvement.

There's more to dissect in his blog, but I've already offered more in my rebuttal, if you will, than he typed up, so I'll stop with this here.

(That wasn't necessarily all about "calling out" Mark Bradley, it was more about this growing idea that the 2010 team lacks something the 2009 team had)

Last thing...

This isn't really so much of a "point," as much as it is a general question.

But, what's your favorite spring training facility?

I've only been to Legends Field (now Steinbrenner Field) in Tampa, but if I were to go back down, where would you say is the best place to see a game?

The Atlanta Braves

This blog (article, that't what wer're calling theses posts) will give a little backgraound as to why I'm a Braves fan (I stole this from an old article I wrote on Bleacher Report).

There are many, many reasons as to why I love this organization.

From the tradition to the quality people it has produced, the Atlanta Braves have served as a great medium to build my fondness of baseball on.


The Base of my Beliefs

Where I live, near Winston-Salem, North Carolina, your options for baseball are limited; you have the Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and no-baseball bandwagons to jump on. Those are pretty much your four choices if you want people around you who share your beliefs.

There was a time, not so long ago, that I chose the last of the four options.

I was a, uggh (I can't believe that I'm saying this outline), NASCAR fan in the heart of the sport's region and cared little about the game that I love so dearly now.

My grandfather had been an Atlanta Braves fan since the days of suckage back in the 70's and 80's, through the 14 consecutive division titles, and still is today because of the televised games on FSN South, SportSouth, and the sparatic games on ESPN and Fox.

So, from that, I had always had a mild interest in the organization.

But, that interest was never anything huge, and I would always watch the races on Sundays and only catch 20-30 games a season.

But, as time progressed, I began to look at NASCAR in Lehman's terms and had a posteriori. All NASCAR was was 40-some cars going in a circle over the course of three hours.

Yeah, real exciting when you look at it.

It was then that I fell into a love affair with the statistics and game of baseball in general. The home runs, the defense, the strategy, ahhh...the beautiful game.

(side note: I will watch NASCAR on Sunday off-days)


The Venues

In 2000, I went to my first Braves, and live baseball, game ever (I had never even been to any of the Minor League games in my area).

I was seven-years-old and was amazed by the sixe of the park and the gigantic ceramic All-Star balls (no sexual enuendo intended) outside of the Stadium.

We sat in our seats, about 15 or 20 rows up down the left field line. I was wearing my official Braves t-shirt with "C. Jones" on the back of it, sitting next to my dad. The Bravos were playing Sammy Sosa and the Cubs.

I can remember being captivated by the big metal pennants hanging in left and the big box score that used to be in center (where the massive HD screen is now).

That was an experience.


The Winning & the Organization

There has never been a time in my 16 years where the Braves, except for 2008, maybe, have truly sucked.

This has made it very easy to like them.

Even now, after three (soon to be four) post-seasonless seasons, I have an ever-growing passion for the team.

Make no mistake, I am not a fair-weather fan.

If I were a resident of Atlanta, I guarantee you that I would be saving my cash every year ti get season tickets (those $1 seats above third base aren't half-bad, you know).

Another reason for the Braves love is the way in which they carry out their business.

Development through the minors, pitching, and a few big signings.

It's very nice to root for a team that hasn't had to buy it's World Championship.

Every year, I look at the Minor League system and hope think about the brightness of the Braves' future.

The team consumes me. The system, the set-up, the, well... everything.

This is my team, and I love it.