Atlanta Braves X-Factors: Chipper Jones

This past season was rough, to say the least, for Chipper Jones.

The venerable Braves third baseman posted the lowest batting average (.264) and slugging percentage (.430) that his 16-year (including the eight games in '93) has ever seen.

The now-37-year-old Jones also saw his first sub-20 homer season as a full-time player.

In fact, '09 was so bad for the face (at least until J-Word starts tearing it up) of the franchise, that retirement talks were being floated by Hoss himself this offseason as he enters the first year of a three-year extension.

Even with these pint-sized numbers, the Braves as a whole really did not suffer the fate many would have expected with those abysmal numbers from No. 10.

They still won 86 games and were well within striking distance during the season's final weeks.

But, imagine what this past season could have been with the Chipper we've come to know and love over the past few years in Atlanta's three hole.

You know, that .320, 20 homer guy that slices up defenses with teardrop bloopers, screaming gappers, and the occasional 400-foot blast.

The guy that can carry the team when it occasionally finds itself sans-B-Mac, -Escobar, or -clean-up hitter.

Had you plugged that into the line-up the Braves featured in the second half of 2009, and we may be talking about the deep playoff run the Braves and their exceptional pitching staff had in the 2009 postseason...but I digress.

We all know what C. Jones means to the Braves.

He's the guy that leads all of the young guys with his actions and is always accountable for his actions...a true professional.

But, he is getting up there in age and is now looking down the barrel of Bobby Cox's final season...you know, his second father who has served as his only MLB manager.

You have to wonder if he can handle the pressure that's going to stem from 2009, Cox, and his birth certificate.

Because, if he can't, you're likely looking at another postseasonless season in Hotlanta.

This really is the dude that can push the Braves over the line of mediocrity if he can come in and post something close to the afore mentioned "norm" that Braves fans have come to expect from their aging star.

Personally, I think he's got enough in the tank to do something this season.

We certainly can't expect anything close to his '99 MVP season as a 27-year-old, and I don't think any of us really are.

But, when you consider the pressure a legitimate bat like Troy Glaus take off of Jones' shoulders (who has admitted to attempting to boost his power numbers with a "bigger," if you will, swing) and the work he put in this offseason to fix some flaws in his swing, you have to think that .290-.310 and 20-25 homers is well within the realm of possibilities.

If I had to put money down on it, I think .307 (that is his career BA) with 21 homers and an OBP in the neighborhood of .420 would be completely reasonable.

That average falls short of his '06-'08 and those homers would match his 2005 (when he batted .296).

He won't (and I think you can mark that down) set the world on fire...but he also shouldn't be the, let's say, anti-Chipper that we saw in 2009...at least I hope.

And...well...I can't think of any good way to slip this video in here other than to say that I really like the song...

Anyway, I think we'll be looking at Billy Wagner in our next edition of Atlanta Braves X-Factors...be sure to check back.

Johnny Damon to the Atlanta Braves: Looking More Reasonable

"Can we just let he Johnny Damon -to-Braves rumors die?...

But it's a bit unreasonable (and perfectly designed to bring my hopes
up before crushing them into a burning pile of flames), don't you
think?

I get that Wren could be bluffing by saying he has nothing else to
spend, but with the market being as it is and the Braves being in the market
that they are (i.e. poor attendance), that just doesn't seem to be the
case."

This is a direct quote from this article I wrote just three (soon to be four) days ago.

Now, I'm not saying that I'm rescinding all of that just yet (and the crushing my dreams part seems to be coming true), but I'm now really starting to think about Johnny Damon in Atlanta.

Thinking hard about it.

Even though I still think a Damon return to the Yankees (despite "budget" concerns on the Yankees' part) is coming, several reports have indicated that the Braves, who had virtually said they were done for the offseason not even two weeks ago, are still talking to the veteran outfielder.

One report, Frankie Piliere of FanHouse, even suggests that talks are "progressing."

And with the level of secrecy the Braves have carried this offseason, there is a distinct possibility that Frank Wren and Scott Boras (who have a historically good relationship) could be in a backroom somewhere hammering out the details on a contract (one I would expect to be one year at $4-7 MM with a mutual option for 2011).

As I just said, I think the Yankees are still the likely spot for Damon (and I would probably put the Tigers a little ahead of the Braves as well), but imagine this as the Braves' Opening Day line-up with the formerly-bearded wonder:

LF L Johnny Damon
2B R Martin Prado
3B S Chipper Jones
1B R Troy Glaus
C L Brian McCann
SS R Yunel Escobar
CF L Nate McLouth
RF L OR R Jason Heyward OR Matt Diaz


Obviously, the Braves would be forced to make a move with either Matt Diaz or Melky Cabrera (both of whom have nice, new, arbitration-avoiding contracts...and by moving either of these guys, the Braves would, technically only be adding $2-4 MM to their payroll) before Opening Day if the Braves choose to allow Jason Heyward to start the season in the majors (and before Heyward's call-up, otherwise), but that's not what I'm focusing on here.

What I'm focusing on is Damon's potential for 35-40 doubles and 5-10 triples (with 12-20 stolen bases at a batting average of about .280) and how they would be an awesome addition to a Braves team that features a ton of slap-hitters and only a few big time power threats (maybe three).

I'm looking at the "winning attitude" he would bring to the clubhouse.

And the influence the 36-year-old would have on the left-hand hitting prodigy J-word (shout-out to Michael Arm for that one).

I said in The Atlanta Braves' Outfield in 2010: Who Ya Got?, concerning Damon, that

"... if he were to drop his asking price to maybe one year at six or seven
million...it would make a lot of sense for the Braves."

With Adam LaRoche taking a small deal to go to Arizona (a much bigger power threat than Damon) and Aubrey Huff taking away a serious suitor for Damon in the Giants, it seems that this very thing may have happened.

I'll say it for a third time, though (get that I'm trying to ehphasize this): I am still hesitant to call Damon anything other than a Yankee (even with the chances of that diminishing as I write this), but the whispers going around...well...everywhere, have really gotten me thinking that this could be an almost perfect match for both parties.

The girly arm is not a plus, but extra-base hits and fair speed?

Gimmie (especially if my price guess is close to right).

Provided he grows the beard and hair back, that is.

The Adam LaRoche Situation in Atlanta and My First Move as GM

As promised, here is the early-offseason decision-making series.

Let's go in the order of the questions I posed in the linked piece above, and start with Adam LaRoche.

LaRoche was, arguably, the best offensive deadline acquisition of any team in the Majors when he was sent to Atlanta from Boston for Casey Kotchman.

As the Braves had hoped, Adam's annual second-half "show-up" happened, as he knocked 12 homers, drove in 40 runs, and hit a robust .325 in 57 games (while committing one error to boot).

As Braves' fans re-discovered the love for their former first baseman, LaRoche seemed to re-discover his love for the town that gave him his first professional shot.

With all of these factors swirling around LaRoche's free-agent-to-be head (along with a Chipper Jones endorsement), it seems like a given that the Braves will retain their late-'09 power threat.

Right?

Not so fast.

As I see it right now, there are two factors that could potentially lead Adam to a city outside of Atlanta: his staple first-half blues, and Freddie Freeman.


LaRoche is and always has been a second-half hitter.

His '09 splits define him perfectly.

In 87 games with Pittsburgh: .247/12 HR/38 XBH
In 63 games with BOS & ATL: .320/12 HR/24 XBH

Yeah...

Maybe you can put it on his comfort in Atlanta, but I put it on the man himself.

Just look at his average and homers in these seasons:

2008: .251 & 11 vs. .304 & 14
2007: .239 & 13 vs. .312 & 8
2006: .251 & 13 vs. .323 & 19

It's not that he wouldn't be GOOD in the first half, it's just that his average wouldn't make him a great option in the heart of the order (3, 4, 5)

That becomes a moot point if the Braves were to get a legit 4 hitter and would be able to move Adam to the six hole to slack (not that he's lazy) for the first half.

Still, how much love would Braves' fans give the son of LaLob is he hits for his .240 with six or seven home runs?

My guess would be: Not very much.


Secondly, you must consider the fact that the Braves currently have a 6'5" big-bopper in waiting sitting in AA in Freddie Freeman.

Granted, the 19-year-old first baseman struggled a bit with Mississippi, but I think a lot of that has to do with a wrist injury and having to play next to Jason Heyward (who is a freak of nature).

I'd put Freddie's ETA at June 2011 right now with the potential for full-time duties to start 2012.

What does that have to do with LaRoche?

Lots.

LaRoche is exiting his 29-year-old season, and will be hitting the Free Agent market looking for two things: years (first and foremost) and green.

These are two things that the Braves, who could have a cheaper stud in a couple of years, may not have available.

With names like Vazquez (at least in 2010), Lowe, and Kawakami eating up significant portions of the Braves always-sub-100MM payroll, LaRoche may not, financially, be a fit.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the Braves would want to offer LaRoche a two-year deal at about 7.5 or 8 MM (that's a pretty generous hometown discount) per season with a third-year club option if they either decide to let Freeman heat up longer or throw him in the "fail" can.

I'd also say that LaRoche is probably looking for a deal in the neighborhood of four years at an annual salary at or around 9.5 or 10 MM per.

Those, from my analysis (and probably your own as well), are two fundamentally different deals.


That, my friends, is why I say this:

I put the odds of an Adam LaRoche return in real life at 33%, and why I choose not to retain him in my GM world.

I think that, even though a mutual desire for each other's services may be there, the two sides are looking for two different things this offseason, and that Rochey isn't going to be waiting for a Braves counter-offer if a team like the Mutts...erm...Mets, Blue Jays, White Sox, or Giants come knocking.

Instead, I look to the free agent market (with meager names like Millar, Branyan-no confidence in this guy, and Nick Johnson available).

Names like Jorge Cantu, Adam Dunn (40 homers and a ridiculous OBP make up for the low average (and 12 MM for his player-type is fair), plus he could man LF with a possibility of Schafer and Heyward in center and right in the future), and Prince Fielder (though this one is highly, highly unlikely-and Freeman would be gone in this scenario) all possibilities on the block.

My choice: Jorge Cantu.

Braves Get: Jorge Cantu, Brian Sanches
Fish Get: James Parr, Brandon Hicks, A pitcher (their choice)

Twenty homers and a .290 average would be expected out of Cantu on a full-time at first base, and at a very reasonable $4-5MM salary (through arbitration), and Sanches (31) could serve as a solid right-handed middle reliever (the Peter Moylan role if the Braves decide to split closing opportunities with the Aussie and O'Flaherty-or just another reliever if the Bravos retain Gonzalez...more on that later in the series).

The Marlins, who have a great eye for talent, would probably be happy with a MLB-ready starter with 3-spot ceiling, a great-fielding middle-infielder with a little pop (especially if they trade Uggla), and their specialty: napping up far-away talent.

So, let's re-cap the offseason so far:
Hudson retained (this is real-life)
LaRoche out, Cantu at first (my head)

Next up: The BIG trade-chips.

With the Hudson Domino Set to Fall, What's Next for the Braves?

If you believe Dave O'Brien, Mark Bowman, and the ever so unreliable Ken Rosenthal, Tim Hudson is set to sign a three-year extension with the Atlanat Braves in the neighborhood of $27MM.
I don't know about you, but that's a big relief.
Locking up an elite (provided he looks like his seven starts at the end of '09) two or three starter for under $10MM is always good.
When you add in the fact that he's locked up for under the salary of two of your potential offseason trade chips (Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez), it's even better.
So that's one thing this offseason down...999,999 more to go, right?
Still, it's good to see one of the issues that was going to affect later moves get close to knocked out before the World Series even ends.
But now come the tough decisions.
Will the Braves try to re-sign Adam LaRoche?
Which of the three big chips (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami) will be on the outs--and for who?
What'll happen to Kelly Johnson, Boone Logan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano?
What guys will get their shots this spring?
These are all things to consider...even if it is only November (at least it will be in about two-and-a-half hours).
In an upcoming series, I will address all of these issues as if I were Frank Wren, and then I will give you my 2010 Atlanta Braves (for, what, about the 18th time?).