Musings on the Atlanta Braves with 11 Days Left Until Spring Training

As with many of the late musings, little has happened in Bravesland.

Well, I should say that little had happened transaction/real news-wise...the blogosphere always yeilds something to discuss.

This musing is a day late, so I did have time to find one big-time juicy nugget to work with.

With that said, I see no other direction to go other than right into the content...

First thing, the Braves' Caravan.

No. I am not from the Braves' PR Department.

But, let me tell you, this is quite an experience.

Even though the event I want to in Charlotte this past Wednesday didn't have the cream of the Braves' traveling crop (Peter Moylan, Brooks Conrad, Otis Nixon, Eric O'Flaherty, Terry Pendleton, Zane Smith, and Frank Wren--who is surprisingly short...I'm 6'1" and when he walked by me before the autographs started he was probably a little above my shoulder), just to see the people that you've admired and followed in person is pretty cool.

Maybe that feeling came from the fact that I've never gotten any kind of autograph before...but still.

If the Caravan is going to come anywhere close to you in it's final week, I would highly recommend that you attend...you get to speak to the players, to get them to sign your stuff, and (if you're fortunate enough to have the event you attend be at a Wild Wing Cafe) great food.

I mean, look at how much fun homer was having...

...as I filmed him on my low-quality cell phone camcorder (just so you know why the quality's so bad).

Oh, and, no, I wasn't skipping school...we had a snowday but the highways going from Winston to Charlotte were clear so a friend and I decided to go.

Second thing, what's with all the criticism of the Braves' rotation?

Now, this isn't the first time I've seen something like this quote I read from Mark Bradley's blog today.

But, it is the first time that I've seen an "expert" say this and I feel that this is a good base from which I can fully assert my opinions on this matter.

Here's the meat of Bradley's blog (which totaled 285 of his own words) in which he responded to/agreed wit Jon Heyman's analysis of the Braves' offseason:

"My two cents (hey, I’m cheap, too!): Even if the Vazquez trade helps the Braves down the road — I’m thinking of prospect Arodys Vizcaino — there was no way they should have surrendered the man who might well have been their Opening Day starting pitcher without getting a starting position player in return. (Cabrera is seen as a fourth outfielder.) And I don’t buy the argument that the Braves’ rotation will be just as strong without Vazquez.

With Vazquez, the fourth and fifth starters would have been Lowe, who even in a down year won 15 games, and Tim Hudson, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008. Without Vazquez, those two must move up a slot and Kenshin Kawakami, who won seven games last season, again becomes the No. 5 starter. I’m sorry, but that’s a downgrade."

Now, I'm not going to say that I have no idea where he's coming from with this...because I do.

This reaction (especially the part about KK only winning seven games last season...I'll go into more in a second) just strikes me as something that a very, very, very lazy person would write, though.

Not a paid sports journalist.

And I have some serious qualms with someone with the stage and "influence," if you will, of Bradley spewing something of this low of a caliber out (not saying that I'm the be-all, end-all of the Atlanta Braves or anything) without any real statistical backing.

I can tell you with full confidence that the 2010 version of the Braves' starting rotation will be just as strong and reliable as the 2009 version.

Timmy Hudson is a career 3.49 pitcher with 148 wins and served as (virtually) the Braves' ace from about 2006 until his Tommy John Surgery, posting 13, 16, and 11 wins in those seasons (with a 3.17 ERA through 22 starts in the 11-win campaign).

Right there is your replacement for Javy Vazquez who was due for a regression following a season in which he posted career bests in ERA, walks allowed, H/9, and HR/9 and his second best K total.

Jair Jurrjens is, simply put, Jair Jurrjens.

There's no reason his stuff, command, and mound presence shouldn't improve.

Tommy Hanson...see JJ.

He's young, his stuff's dynamic, and he didn't bat an eye against some of the best hitters the bigs have to offer.

Derek Lowe should gravitate back towards his career norms as Vazquez will.

I don't want to carry on for too long here, so I'll give you this link that gives you a nice, long explanation, if you care to read it.

Now we come to Kenshin Kawakami.

Even though the Japanese right-hander only posted seven wins last season, I'd like for you to examine this:

In the months of April, May, June, July, and August, Pitcher A started: 5, 6, 5, 5, and 5 games; posting an ERA of 3.38, 3.76, 1.98, 2.94, and 3.03; K totals of 42, 44, 39, 33, and 34; and 2, 2, 1, 3, and 3 wins in those months (this pitcher had 32 starts total).

Pitcher B started 4, 5, 5, 5, and 6 games with ERAs of 7.05, 3.03, 3.33, 4.72, and 2.87 with Ks totaling 18, 26, 16, 16, and 22 with 1, 2, 1, 1, and 2 wins (this pitcher had 32 starts total with some of his appearances in August coming in relief).

Pitcher C started 5, 6, 5, 6, and 6 games with 1.72, 3.38, 3.68, 2.09, and 3.65 ERAs, totaled 16, 24, 28, 25, and 29 Ks and had 2, 3, 0, 4, and 1 wins (this pitcher had 34 starts total).

Notice that if you throw out the highs and lows in ERA between A and B and do the same for strikeouts between B and C, you'll find that those pitchers (for either category) compare quite favorably.

It's obvious that Pitcher B was Kawakami, but when compared directly to Javier Vazquez (A) and Jair Jurrjens (C), he doesn't look too bad.

If he can continue to adjust to all of the factors that were working against him last season (culture and baseball), then he should only see improvement.

There's more to dissect in his blog, but I've already offered more in my rebuttal, if you will, than he typed up, so I'll stop with this here.

(That wasn't necessarily all about "calling out" Mark Bradley, it was more about this growing idea that the 2010 team lacks something the 2009 team had)

Last thing...

This isn't really so much of a "point," as much as it is a general question.

But, what's your favorite spring training facility?

I've only been to Legends Field (now Steinbrenner Field) in Tampa, but if I were to go back down, where would you say is the best place to see a game?

Atlanta Braves X-Factors: Derek Lowe

An X-Factor is, according to wiki.answers.com, an "unknown factor...which adds a a certain value to [an] object, element, or person."

(I know it's a general term, but bear with me...this is a poor attempt at a "hook" for this series)

For the Atlanta Braves, I believe there are several players (I think I've settled on five) that could easily have the word "X-Factor" slipped into their description for the upcoming season.

In the first edition of this series, I am going to be running up and down Derek Lowe and his potential impact on the team in 2010.

To avoid me rambling on for 200-300 words here, I think it's best that we go ahead and begin...

Last offseason the Braves, in haste following the less-than-pleasant departure of John Smoltz, inked then-35-year-old Derek Lowe to a four-year, $60 million deal to serve as the team's ace in front of the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami (who was signed shortly after Lowe), and one of two Tommy's (Glavine and/or Hanson).

And Lowe delivered...a 4.67 ERA with 111 Ks (to 63 BBs) while allowing a league-high 232 in 194.2 innings.

But hey, at least he...uhh...got 15 wins?

It doesn't take too much to recognize that Lowe had a pretty bad year...especially at $15 million.

It looked even worse next to his teammates who posted 2.60, 2.87, 3.86, and 2.89 ERAs (respective to the order I had above).

That's why the Braves did everything they could to dump Lowe off to a team willing to take on the majority of the right-hander's ace-like deal after they inked Tim Hudson to an extension.

But, when the Braves could find no takers, they had to move down to their other non-cornerstone, move-able starter and deal Javier Vazquez to the New York Yankees for Melky Cabrera and a pair of Minor Leaguers (Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino).

So, as it stands right now, the Bravos are heading into Spring Training with a rotation looking a little like this:

1 R Tim Hudson
2 R Jair Jurrjens
3 R Tommy Hanson
4 R Derek Lowe
5 R Kenshin Kawakami

And for 1, 2, 3, and 5, you have to expect some special things.

Hudson's just that much further away from Tommy John Surgery; Jair Jurrjens' and Tommy Hanson's dynamic arms should only come out with more firepower in '10; and Kenshin Kawakami only improved last year as he adjusted to the cultural aspects, ball, mound, and hitters of Major League Baseball last season.

Lowe, the guy that was expected to be the "given" for the Braves' rotation for the next three years when he signed last offseason, stands as the only real "iffy" factor in the Braves' rotation as we look upon it here two weeks prior to pitchers and catchers reporting.

So, what should we be looking for from Derek Lowe in 2010?

After all, he's not getting any younger and hitter's aren't going to be cutting he any slack.

Well, I have a couple of thoughts...

First thing, I'm expecting the sinker to be a little more effective this go-'round.

Last season, Lowe had the lowest ground ball rate of his career (well, for as long as FanGraphs has been keeping up with GB%) at 56.3%.

That's compared to (including last season) a 63.4% career rate.

If you recall, the Jon and Boog (who has been replaced by the utterly disgraceful Chip Caray) discussed Lowe "tinkering" with his grip on his trademark sinker because of the increasing "sloppiness" from using his other grip.

This was around late-June and early-July.

And if you look at his month-by-month ERAs, you can see where this tinkering worked a bit.

In April and May, the Michigan native had very Lowe-like numbers as he posted 3.10 and 3.76 earned run averages, respectively.

In June, his ERA jumped to a Jo-Jo Reyes-esq 6.54 ERA, his worst numbers of any month in which he started more than one game.

If he did indeed make the adjustments that I just mentioned around the time that I stated, then it shows, as his ERA fell down to a very respectable 3.38.

Now, in August and September, his three digits went back to 5.08 and 5.61.

There were probably a variety of reasons for this, as he was probably runnin' on empty and losing heart before ultimately becoming completely heartless (the first link is for classic rock lovers, the second for modern pop-rock lovers, the last for Kanye fans).

But, I think the biggest factors were cropping up on the tips of D-Lowe's fingers in the form of blisters developing from his "adjusted" grip on his sinker.

This season, given nearly five full months to fix mechanical and grip-based issues, I think we can expect Lowe to come close to logging of full season's worth of 2009's positive months while reverting to his usual plus-60 groundball rate.

Number two, Lowe's got a chip on his shoulder.

In an interview with Mark Bowman this offseason, Lowe expressed his displeasure with the trade winds blowing through his backyard.

After the Vazquez trade he spoke with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien and, basically, said that everything was in the past and he was excited about the upcoming season as he threw in a couple of other cliches that PO-ed ballplayers always use.

I don't know about you, but Lowe seems to have the personality conducive to turning anger into positive results.

That tenacity on the mound, you know.

I don't know the guy personally, so I cannot say that with certainty...but the TV tells me that it's there.

And if it is really there, then I think Lowe will have a very, very, very, (x10), strong season just so he can prove his critics wrong.

Cy Young?

Probably not.

But a strong veteran presence putting up better-than-league-average numbers?

Definitely.

To sum it up...

I'm not looking for Lowe to come in and dominate the league like his contract suggests he should (as he's making $1 million less than Justin Verlander's average salary shiny new 5-year extension in Mo-Town).

Those days are behind him.

But, I am expecting Lowe to come into with a fire inside and a nasty, non-blister-inducing sinker ready to join his fellow Brave starters in posting all sub-4.00 ERAs (you know, to make it a set).

If he can do that, I can live with saying "hey, if you average it out, JJ, Hanson, and Lowe average out to about $5 MM a piece...that's pretty reasonable" for another couple of years because that would mean that the Braves would have the best starting rotation in baseball.

Here's a toast to D-Lowe...

...as we move on to Troy Glaus in the next "Atlanta Braves X-Factors."

Musings on the Atlanta Braves with 24 Days Left Until Spring Training

Another news-less week has left me with little to say that hasn't already been at least mentioned before.

But, with these bland, beaten-to-death topics, old topics, comes some new perspective.

Makes me wish I had some contacts...

Anyway, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm ready for the Johnny Damon saga to end.

It's starting to feel a little bit like Jake Peavy 2.0...with less coverage from the media.

It's not so much that I want the Braves to get him (though it would be nice), I just want the sense of uneasiness and anticipation that comes with a situation like this one to stop.

I just want to see MLB Trade Rumors or hotstove.com (the new site I will be contributing to following Braves transactions--that's called a segue) featuring the headline "_____, Johnny Damon Agree to Terms" so I can either type up a positive reaction or stop checking my e-mail/MLBTR every two minutes.

If this drags out into mid-February, I might blow a gasket...though, I think that I've said that a couple of times now.

Next thing, Jair Jurrjens.

I was reading Mark Bowman's inbox today, and the first question was concerning the need to extend JJ a long-term contract.

Bowman basically said that the Braves will probably end up waiting to see whether or not JJ and, for that matter, Tommy Hanson, are going to be the real deal into the future.

Now, the Braves obviously are too limited by funds to risk dishing out $7-9 million per year over the next four to seven years (I'm thinking Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun length-deals at Cole Hamels salaries) and having either JJ or Big Red going down with catastrophic arm injuries.

But, these two have shown the abilities in their limited big league-showcases of number one's and two's that should only improve.

It's not my money, but I think that big-time extensions need to come in the next two to three years (which is what Bowman basically suggested).

The Braves cannot afford to lose this kind of talent (no s*@%, right?), and locking them up at this stage of their careers is going to be the only way to keep them from going to the New York's, Los Angele's, and Boston's of the world.

After all, Atlanta, especially sans-Cox, won't have the nostalgia it did when the Braves were able to get Greg Maddux and John Smoltz to come/stick around at sub-market value.

Last thing...Stephen Strasbug hype.

I was checking the prospect rankings today and found this little nugget.

If you don't feel like opening that link up, this is what the author, Frankie Piliere, said about the top-five prospects in the game (with their outstanding MiLB stats to the side):

5. Jesus Montero, C, NYY (.389 OBP, 17 homers)
4. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL (.408, 17 homers)
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, TB (.401 OBP, 52 steals)
2. Mike Stanton, OF, FLA (.341 OBP, 28 homers)
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WSH (college)

Now I don't want to sound too whiny about one dude's top-5, but come on.

All five of these guys are special talents, but Heyward at four?

That's not my main gripe, though (it's probably No. 2).

My gripe is the overwhelming amount of feet-kissing for Strasburg.

I understand that he can throw 100 and that he has outstanding breaking stuff for his age (21), but did anyone see what he did in the Arizona Fall League (aka his only professional experience)?

Dude had a 4.26 ERA with 23 Ks in 19 innings.

As a point, Tommy Hanson's 0.63 ERA with 49 Ks in 28.2 innings barely got him into the top-5 in most rankings.

Look, I'm not trying to be overly nit-picky about meaningless projections, but I just don't think a guy can go from college phenom (you know, the place where talent is AA and less) to the next great thing for the Majors.

No doubt, I think this needs to be said, that his pure stuff makes him appealing...but can we let the guy get a few successful pro performances under his belt before putting him ahead of guys like Stanton, Jennings, and Heyward?

And in the words of my good friend Forrest Gump...