The Jason Heyward Situation: My Take

It's becoming more and more obvious with each passing batting practice 450 foot, car-demolishing blast and Spring Training walk and slash, that Jason Heyward is becoming, and will likely remain such for the next decade or two, the apple of Braves Nations' eye.

The big-boned Atlanta prospect looks to be, even at a mere 20 years of age, the real deal.

And, with that, is looking more and more like one of the, as Braves officials have, in a somewhat round-about way, coined it "best 25 men in camp."

So, it's a no-brainer that he starts the season at the Ted against the Chicago Cubs, right?

Not so fast...

In his most recent downer-blog, venerable Atlanta-Journal Constitution writer Mark Bradley profiled the dilemma that henceforth shall be referred to the J-Hey Conundrum.

I encourage you, provided your view on the world is of a cynical nature, to read it and the caption from ESPN's Rob Neyer.

(For the record, Bradley does present his facts in a straight-forward manner, very professional...but it's so depressing to read one of his columns. Give him and David O'Brien the same stats and information, and you'll walk away from DOB's piece thinking positively...as opposed to the sluggish sensation you get as you navigate away from Bradley's publications.)

Anyway (I wrote a blog a couple of weeks back that I was too embarrassed to let tough B/R because of the utter disgust I heard when I read it back...I don't want to let this one get to that point), back to the downer-blog...

In it, Bradley (through Neyer, who wrote his lecture through Bryan Smith) likens the Heyward situation to that of both Tommy Hanson last season and Evan Longoria in 2008.

Which I get.

In both of those cases, the teams (the Braves and Rays, respectively) were looking to sacrifice a little bit of production in the beginning of their 162-game campaigns to save a little money down the line.

But consider the cost, beyond just dollars, in both cases.

The Rays, as we all know, inked Longo to a nine-year, $44 million-plus contract days after calling him up to make the entire "service time" situation moot (172 days is a full year...Longo would have had 170 if anyone had been counting upon a contract falling trough back in '08 or whatnot)--and I know that's what everyone in Atlanta and the entire southeast (and pretty much everyone who brandishes a cap with a fancy "A" nationwide) would like to see.

And in the end, not calling him up didn't hurt the eventual '08 AL Champs at all.

They got their affordable deal for an up-and-coming MVP and a berth in the World Series.

Then look at Tommy Hanson who has yet to make any sort of long-term (as in, beyond his arbitration years) commitment with the Bravos.

Sure, the team keeps nasty arbitration hearings out of the picture for another season, but the Braves were also, for my money, kept out of the 2009 playoffs because of this decision.

Think about it...give Hanson 10 more starts last season to build on his stellar 2.89 ERA and 8.2 K/9 rate and we could've been talking about a deep run for the Braves and that staff that so elegantly graced the field last season.

That's not to say that he definitely would have propelled the Braves to the few additional games they needed to clinch a spot; I'm just saying that the spark Hanson provided was something to behold and would have brought about more positive ramifications than any uninspired Jo-Jo Reyes start.

And that brings us back to the J-Hey Conundrum.

Should the Braves be sweetening the Kool-Aid all of the residences of Braves Nation have been drinking...even though it is somewhat of a risky (no guarantees Heyward is as accommodating as Longoria) route, and call the J-Hey Kid up while Super-Two and "early-arbitration/free agency" loom heavy?

Or should they pour all of the hype and anticipation down the sink in an effort to delay big-time, high-pressure contract negotiations?

For me, the answer is simple--bring out the Domino!

I can admit that I come within an inch of peeing myself every time Heyward comes to bat and does something (be it a single, double, stolen base, walk, or pop out) because of my school girl-like giddiness over the McDonough Man-Child (there's a nickname for ya).

And I'm sure I'm not alone in that sensation (though most dudes probably would not liken themselves to a school girl publicly).

But, the reasoning (though paralleling that in a way) goes much deeper than just my own personal man-crush on J-Word.

It goes beyond, as one commenter on Bradley's blog put it (this dude was anti-Heyward in the majors, for the record) "[Giving] 14 days and getting 365."

It goes to the state of the pissed off, foaming-at-the-mouth, hungry Braves' fan-base that lets its "trollish" wrath be heard daily around the interweb, and the atmosphere down at Disney that you feel radiating out of any of the veteran Braves' comments.

Since 2005, when can you remember THIS sort of utter joy and giddiness radiating from the depths of Braves forums?

When is the last time that you've heard so much national interest in the franchise?

When is the last time you've seen such an immaculate talent rise through the Braves' farm system?

Exactly.

It's been a while.

At some point, you have to reach out to the fan base and say "we're really trying" (not that I doubt that).

Say that "you know what, we are a better team with this guy than without...even if we lose out a little on the back end."

Even without the emotional ties, the dude, with his .352/.446/.611 line at AA last year and incredible maturity (both on- and off the field, by all reports), has proved that he, at the very least, deserves an unbiased (from a cash perspective) look.

He's proven that age is just a number with his "30 ought six" shots to the outfield and high praise (I think they're too much of s stretch, so I'm not going to specifically mention them) from the man that should be his manager on April 5, Bobby Cox.

Even more than all of that, he brings a quiet confidence and a "Francoeur-like" energy that doesn't always seem to be readily available when you look at any of the Braves' starters

As Heyward says on his Twitter account, "it all feels the same, enjoyin the game i love."

And looking at all of the smiles in every BP photo and autograph signing you see of him, you believe that.

As long as he doesn't go 0-for the rest of the spring (though one-for would probably not be acceptable, either), he is the best option available for the Braves in right field...regardless of any cash concerns...and should have a number "nine" penciled in next to his name come Opening Day as he runs onto the grass of Turner Field.

Musings on the Atlanta Braves as Players Report

This is my favorite time of year.

Pitchers are throwing to real catchers for the first time in months.

Rookies are gearing up for their first shots.

Aging vets are getting ready to fight to prove that they can still do what they've been doing since they were five-years-old.

And news is actually readily available without having to BS a ton.

This is the first musing that I've put out in some time, so I actually have some real topics to discuss (exciting, right?) without the previously mentioned BS (though I did throw some of that in here).

First thing, Johnny Damon.

The saga that most Braves fans have been emerging ourselves in has been that of the newly-christened Detroit Tiger, Johnny Damon.

I said before it started that the whole story seemed like a good setup to get my hopes up before throwing them to the floor in a fiery menagerie of frustration and disappointment.

And guess what?

That's not exactly what happened...which is a good thing.

After all, I had figured that (even though I really wanted him at the top of the Braves' order) the formerly-bearded one would spurn the Atlanta ballclub for greener outfields in the American League.

And, when Damon signed a one year, $8 MM deal with the Tigers this past week, I just sort of shrugged and just reminded myself that I would probably take four times (depending on the report you read) the guaranteed that the Braves were offering to play for Jim Leyland and his crew as well.

I was disappointed, don't get me wrong on that front, because I saw Damon as a legitimate option to improve the club...but I didn't get too worked up.

I still think this club is well-constructed enough to contend...just glad that ordeal's over.

And that brings me to my second thought...fan support.

I'm going to ask that you scroll through a few Braves blogs (Mark Bradley, David O'Brien, and Mark Bowman would be the "beat guys" I would suggest with any Braves-related threads on MLB Trade Rumors being the other source I would recommend) and tell me if you don't get disgusted with some of the pessimistic and "woe is us" comments from the fans on there.

Frank "Do Nothing" Wren.

Third Place.

Terrible pitching staff.

Fourth Place.

Atrocious line-up.

Even a few folks calling fifth place for the Braves.

In the words of Keyshawn Johnson, COME ON MAN!

The months leading up to the season (unless Dayton Moore is your GM) are cause for optimism.

This is the time when you start to think about how awesome a little October glory would be.

Not when you're calling for the cellar for your "team" (because I don't think some of the people really like the Braves)...especially for a team that's as talented as the 2010 Atlanta Braves.

I mean, seriously.

Look at the corps going into battle this year.

You're going to have one of the top-five rotations in baseball backed by Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Peter Moylan, and Eric O'Flaherty in the 'pen and Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Jason Heyward, and Troy Glaus, to name a few, in the line-up.

You're telling me that's back-end-of-the-division quality?

It's not...have a little faith (and no, I'm not bringing George Michael back again).

Next thing, Edward Salcedo.

If this kid's half of what he's being billed as, then the Braves may have found their long-term solution for third base...or at least part of it (more on that in just a second).

He projects to have solid power and is said to handle short-stop exceptionally well even at 18 (which is his age...no controversy now).

His body size, though, has led many to call him a 3B down the line (that has yet to be seen, obviously).

Imagine if he pans out, though, and the talent an infield of Salcedo, Escobar (or those two could be switched since both are "big" dudes and Escobar has that epic arm), Prado, and Freeman would come up and slam on the table (since this would go beyond "bringing" something to the table).

And a potential OF of Johnson (I'm thinking without all of the Ks while retaining his mammoth power)-Schafer-Heyward with B-Mac behind the plate coupled with a rotation anchored by Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson?

Talk about talent...

That's all being eager (and, more than likely, overly-so), but it is nice to have an above-average infield prospect in the Braves' system now as opposed to hoping for some miracle pick in the draft.

Last thing, the first prediction on the record.

Okay (and this related to the second "point" I made), this is what I'm calling for the Braves in 2010...

Based on the incredibly strong staff and more-than-solid supporting cast, I'm marking the Braves down for 91 wins...good for second in the division and a berth in the playoffs via the wild card.

They came close last season, and I have a ton more confidence in this group than the one that hit the field to start the 2009 season in Philadelphia, so I'm expecting the Braves to do a little more this year than last.

Who knows, they may even run this league in the playoffs (sorry for the bad lead-up to this video)...

...with their mix of vigorous youth and proven veteran talent.

Musings on the Atlanta Braves with 11 Days Left Until Spring Training

As with many of the late musings, little has happened in Bravesland.

Well, I should say that little had happened transaction/real news-wise...the blogosphere always yeilds something to discuss.

This musing is a day late, so I did have time to find one big-time juicy nugget to work with.

With that said, I see no other direction to go other than right into the content...

First thing, the Braves' Caravan.

No. I am not from the Braves' PR Department.

But, let me tell you, this is quite an experience.

Even though the event I want to in Charlotte this past Wednesday didn't have the cream of the Braves' traveling crop (Peter Moylan, Brooks Conrad, Otis Nixon, Eric O'Flaherty, Terry Pendleton, Zane Smith, and Frank Wren--who is surprisingly short...I'm 6'1" and when he walked by me before the autographs started he was probably a little above my shoulder), just to see the people that you've admired and followed in person is pretty cool.

Maybe that feeling came from the fact that I've never gotten any kind of autograph before...but still.

If the Caravan is going to come anywhere close to you in it's final week, I would highly recommend that you attend...you get to speak to the players, to get them to sign your stuff, and (if you're fortunate enough to have the event you attend be at a Wild Wing Cafe) great food.

I mean, look at how much fun homer was having...

...as I filmed him on my low-quality cell phone camcorder (just so you know why the quality's so bad).

Oh, and, no, I wasn't skipping school...we had a snowday but the highways going from Winston to Charlotte were clear so a friend and I decided to go.

Second thing, what's with all the criticism of the Braves' rotation?

Now, this isn't the first time I've seen something like this quote I read from Mark Bradley's blog today.

But, it is the first time that I've seen an "expert" say this and I feel that this is a good base from which I can fully assert my opinions on this matter.

Here's the meat of Bradley's blog (which totaled 285 of his own words) in which he responded to/agreed wit Jon Heyman's analysis of the Braves' offseason:

"My two cents (hey, I’m cheap, too!): Even if the Vazquez trade helps the Braves down the road — I’m thinking of prospect Arodys Vizcaino — there was no way they should have surrendered the man who might well have been their Opening Day starting pitcher without getting a starting position player in return. (Cabrera is seen as a fourth outfielder.) And I don’t buy the argument that the Braves’ rotation will be just as strong without Vazquez.

With Vazquez, the fourth and fifth starters would have been Lowe, who even in a down year won 15 games, and Tim Hudson, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008. Without Vazquez, those two must move up a slot and Kenshin Kawakami, who won seven games last season, again becomes the No. 5 starter. I’m sorry, but that’s a downgrade."

Now, I'm not going to say that I have no idea where he's coming from with this...because I do.

This reaction (especially the part about KK only winning seven games last season...I'll go into more in a second) just strikes me as something that a very, very, very lazy person would write, though.

Not a paid sports journalist.

And I have some serious qualms with someone with the stage and "influence," if you will, of Bradley spewing something of this low of a caliber out (not saying that I'm the be-all, end-all of the Atlanta Braves or anything) without any real statistical backing.

I can tell you with full confidence that the 2010 version of the Braves' starting rotation will be just as strong and reliable as the 2009 version.

Timmy Hudson is a career 3.49 pitcher with 148 wins and served as (virtually) the Braves' ace from about 2006 until his Tommy John Surgery, posting 13, 16, and 11 wins in those seasons (with a 3.17 ERA through 22 starts in the 11-win campaign).

Right there is your replacement for Javy Vazquez who was due for a regression following a season in which he posted career bests in ERA, walks allowed, H/9, and HR/9 and his second best K total.

Jair Jurrjens is, simply put, Jair Jurrjens.

There's no reason his stuff, command, and mound presence shouldn't improve.

Tommy Hanson...see JJ.

He's young, his stuff's dynamic, and he didn't bat an eye against some of the best hitters the bigs have to offer.

Derek Lowe should gravitate back towards his career norms as Vazquez will.

I don't want to carry on for too long here, so I'll give you this link that gives you a nice, long explanation, if you care to read it.

Now we come to Kenshin Kawakami.

Even though the Japanese right-hander only posted seven wins last season, I'd like for you to examine this:

In the months of April, May, June, July, and August, Pitcher A started: 5, 6, 5, 5, and 5 games; posting an ERA of 3.38, 3.76, 1.98, 2.94, and 3.03; K totals of 42, 44, 39, 33, and 34; and 2, 2, 1, 3, and 3 wins in those months (this pitcher had 32 starts total).

Pitcher B started 4, 5, 5, 5, and 6 games with ERAs of 7.05, 3.03, 3.33, 4.72, and 2.87 with Ks totaling 18, 26, 16, 16, and 22 with 1, 2, 1, 1, and 2 wins (this pitcher had 32 starts total with some of his appearances in August coming in relief).

Pitcher C started 5, 6, 5, 6, and 6 games with 1.72, 3.38, 3.68, 2.09, and 3.65 ERAs, totaled 16, 24, 28, 25, and 29 Ks and had 2, 3, 0, 4, and 1 wins (this pitcher had 34 starts total).

Notice that if you throw out the highs and lows in ERA between A and B and do the same for strikeouts between B and C, you'll find that those pitchers (for either category) compare quite favorably.

It's obvious that Pitcher B was Kawakami, but when compared directly to Javier Vazquez (A) and Jair Jurrjens (C), he doesn't look too bad.

If he can continue to adjust to all of the factors that were working against him last season (culture and baseball), then he should only see improvement.

There's more to dissect in his blog, but I've already offered more in my rebuttal, if you will, than he typed up, so I'll stop with this here.

(That wasn't necessarily all about "calling out" Mark Bradley, it was more about this growing idea that the 2010 team lacks something the 2009 team had)

Last thing...

This isn't really so much of a "point," as much as it is a general question.

But, what's your favorite spring training facility?

I've only been to Legends Field (now Steinbrenner Field) in Tampa, but if I were to go back down, where would you say is the best place to see a game?

Rafael Soriano for Jesse Chavez: Braves Drop ex-Closer for...Who?

I learned of the news today in my fourth period AP US History Class.

And when I saw it, I scratched my head a bit.

"So, the Braves just traded what likely would've been the second-hottest closer commodity for...Jesse Chavez?"

I'm sure many of you shared the same sentiment.

So, I did what comes natural.

I googled Jesse Chavez.

This is what I saw: 26 years old, only one sub-three ERA year in the minors (2.22 in eleven appearances a couple of years back), and lots of home runs.

"What's this crap?!?!"

I was a bit perplexed, so I sat back and thought.

"Elite--for ehh...experience--for not so much...expensive...EXPENSIVE...THAT'S IT!"

It was then that I began to put all of the pieces together that had fallen down in the past few hours following Rafael Soriano accepting the Braves' arbitration offer.

Every team that was interested in trading for Soriano knew that the Braves were desperately (no matter what they said) trying to become sans-Soriano.

Every team also knew that they didn't want to be pegged with all of his eventual salary PLUS loose a couple of descent pieces.

So, a day passed, and most team were probably saying things like "Frankie, we'll give you good Prospect A as long as you eat half of the salary the arbitrator hands it out," or "Wren, we'll give you Bat B if you eat half of Soriano's salary AND throw in one of your bench players or MiLB pitchers."

Then the Rays probably came along and said "Hey, here's a guy to give you some depth where you're losing it...and we'll take on his entire post-arbitration salary."

When you weigh the options, the option the Rays offered really isn't half bad.

While it's not likely as good as what the Braves' scouting team could have turned the two picks Raffy would've netted into, it's better than A) eating a pretty big chunk salary for someone else, or B) non-tendering Soriano and getting jack-squat.

While this certainly isn't a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination, at some point, you have to acknowledge that there would be no David Wright's coming in, and that the Braves really don't have the financial flexibility to keep all of the guys they have AND add a couple of other pieces.

This move, despite the small return, gives the Braves the ability to go get two descent-to-above-average players to man left and first base.

For that, I like it.

What Would it Take to Get Carl Crawford to Brandish a Tomahawk?

For those of you who have actually looked over my profile, you know that Carl Crawford listed first on my Short List under "Favorite Athletes".

To expand on that positioning, Carl Crawford is my favorite baseball player/athlete/celebrity/everything.

Speed, defense, average, a little pop, and hustle.

What's not to love?

So, when I saw this article on the St. Pete Time's site, you can believe that a smile ran across my face.

Now, that piece says that the Braves and Mets have only expressed interest in the 2009 All Star Game MVP.

That doesn't mean that anything in imminent, nor does it mean that any names have been exchanged in trade negotiations.

I know that.

But, it is interesting to think about what it would take to acquire the left-handed outfielder.

Let's start by talking about why this implications this would have for Atlanta.

Pros: Speed, Hitting, Fielding, 'Swag'

Carl Crawford brings all of those things to that table.

The dude has epic speed (362 stolen bases in six-and-a-half years), which is something that the Braves have been lacking since Rafael Furcal's final season in '05.

The guy is also a perennial .300 hitter who is a lock for 15 homers (not exceptional, but the speed, average, and doubles and triples (36) make up for it) who can get to a lot of balls.

Put all of that together, and you have a complete package.

And add that package to Heyward and McLouth(possibly down the road), and you have the best outfield in the National League.

He may not fill the "right-handed, power-hitting bat" card, but he is a dynamic outfielder who has been great for his entire career.

(sorry about the bit of bias there)

Cons: Package(s), One Year?

We all know about the Floridian mantra (since it applies to both the Rays and Marlins).

Pay less, trade more.

That's why this rumor even has the bit of legs it possesses.

But it's also what makes this deal questionable.

The Rays will (likely) not accept any veterans with salaries exceeding about $6 MM.

We're talking the Julio Tehran's, Jordan Schafer's, and Craig Kimbrel's of the world (but not necessarily those guys).

And with only one year left on his contract, is he worth that type of talent?

That's up for debate...


Now, let's discuss a potential deal.

As we just established, the Rays will likely be seeking top-flight talent.

For only one year of Crawford, however, I think any deal could be leveraged into one blue-chip prospect, and three "above-average" prospects (remember, Mark Teixeira, with 1.5 years left, came over for five prospects).

So, this is, from the Braves' perspective, as far as I would go if trading for Crawford (and Crawford only) this offseason:

Braves Get: Carl Crawford, Ramon Ramirez
Rays Get: Julio Tehran, Kris Medlen, Jordan Schafer, Brandon Hicks

There's your primo, possible Neftali Feliz-type regret, good MLB-ready arm, MLB-ready replacement (if they do choose to deal BJ Upton as well), and some organizational depth for the Rays.

Add in the fact that this type of move would absolutely require the departure of Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez (it was probably going to happen anyway, but still...) and you have some questions to ask yourself (all asked as if I were Frank Wren) of you want to pull the trigger:

Are we sure we can get this guy to stick around? (a must)
Could we wait until July and possibly give up a little bit less?
Can we compete next offseason if he were to become a free agent?
Will this guy's skill set age well?


My ten cents?

Wait.

As much as a guy like Crawford would bring to the table, the risk-over-reward factor would make many fans (including myself) flash back to the summer of '07 when Mark T. came over.

With retain-ability and organizational depth both issues in any blockbuster like this, I would probably drop the gun and walk away.

Besides, the Braves have just as much of a shot at keeping him (in a trade) as they would acquiring him through free agency.

As hyped as I may have seemed at the beginning of this, thinking about all of that talent going to the Rays really took the wind out of my sails.

As I said...wait and try to get him in a year (by then, you may no longer need him for the offense if Cody Johnson, Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer, and Freddie Freeman all show signs of panning out).

Billy Wagner in Atlanta: A Perfect Fit?

With Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez's departures nearly a given in Atlanta, the Braves have to look towards the Free Agent market for their closer.

(Well, they don't have to, but who is going to trade away a legitimate closer this offseason?)

Names that jump out include Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Jose Valverde.

But combinations of ability and contractual issues make these guys relatively poor fits.

One name that has been established through various media outlets for the Braves, though, is Billy Wagner.

The 38-year-old lefty has drawn interest from various teams and, according to MLB Trade Rumors, is prepared to begin fielding offers next week.

The Hot Stove's beginning to heat up, no?

The one hitch that comes along with Wagner is that he is coming back from Tommy John Surgery.

But with a success rate in the 90's for TJS and a solid 17-game exposition (1.72 ERA, 26:8 K:BB, in 15.2 innings) at the end of the '09 season, the qualms many should have should be quieted a bit.

That's not to say that he should be given a $15 MM annual salary, it just means that the operation shouldn't stop anyone from making him an offer.

Anyway, here's a few reasons as to why Wagner makes sense for the Braves:


1. Despite his type-A (if the Red Sox choose to offer him arbitration), the Braves need not worry.

They'll be getting four picks from whomever signs Gonzo and Soriano, so that is not an issue.


2. According to David O'Brien, Wagner is a "FOC (Friend of Chipper) and has made it known that he'd like to pitch for Bobby Cox."

Does that necessarily mean that he'll take a discount?

No, but it does mean that the Braves have a little leverage over some other clubs.


3. He's only (39) saves away from John Franco for the all-time lead for most saves as a left-handed pitcher.

I'm not naming that for the novelty of having Wagner set a record in a Braves' uni.

I'm saying that that means that he'll want the ball.

Then again, Bob Wickman also wanted the ball...just only in save situations (but Wagner didn't record a save in his late-season return with K-Rod and Papelbon ahead of him and didn't complain, so...).



Are there better options on the market?

Yeah, and two of them will be departing Atlanta (most likely) in the coming weeks.

But there is no other option out there that makes as much sense for the Braves.

The team saw Peter Moylan succeed in '09 after his surgery, and I would expect Wagner to do the same.

The dude is still nasty, as evidenced by his K:BB above, and has always been "mean" enough to take the ball in the ninth.

Other clubs (Cubs, Tigers, other clubs with closer-holes since he doesn't want to be a set-up-only guy) may come knocking with more cash, but the Braves come knocking with Chipper, Bobby Cox's last go-'round, and a Championship-caliber rotation (and an offense that's primed to be the same once a move or two is made).

If I'm Frank Wren, I say "Hey Bean [Stringfellow, Wagner's agent and holder of the "best name for an agent in baseball" award], how does Billy feel about a two-year contract at $15 million guaranteed to play here in Atlanta?

"We'll even throw in a third-year mutual option and performance-based incentives each year along the way that could bring each up to...say...about $9 MM?

"C'mon."

(Okay, maybe the negotiations would go a little deeper than that...but you get my point)

Chips on the Table: The Braves' "Tradeable" Players

So, we've already gotten through the Adam LaRoche situation.

Now, let's talk about the guys the Braves could be shipping out for some hole-filling.

Here, in my mind, are the guys on the block from the Braves' '09 payroll.

1. Derek Lowe
   Bad contract coming of a bad year; this one's pretty simple.
   But who would want him?
   Brewers? Cubs? Mets?
   You've gotta think "money-absorbing" over "talent-laden" in Lowe's situation when you're looking at potential suitors.

Yeah...that's pretty much it.

Coming off an 86-win season, you don't want to mess too much up.

Here are the potential "centerpieces" in deals for a middle-of-the-order hitter.

1. Javier Vazquez
   Spectacular career-year in '09, and, at this point, his value has never been higher.
   Why trade him then?
   For me, Vazquez's '09 is too much unlike his career numbers to tell me that he'll sustain it for an extended period of time.
   It's either address the team's needs now, or wait until mid-July when Vazquez may have a 4.00 ERA (on the same hand, he may have a 1.02 with another team and make me look like an idiot).
   You've gotta sell-high on this guy if you are given the opportunity to get a legit-hitter.
2. Kris Medlen
   It's not so much that Medlen would be a "centerpiece" as much as he would be a "very tempting piece to get the other guys to take less."
   He's young with a live arm and experienced success in his stint in the Big Leagues; or just what a rebuilding team with a large contract on the books is looking for.
3. Martin Prado
   Prado's situation, in my opinion, is like Medlen's and Vazquez's rolled into one.
   He wouldn't be the one guy that could almost get a deal done on his own as much as he is, when paired with another guy, an enticing entity.
   Add to that the potential for a one-and-done-year career, and you have another perfect sell-high opportunity.
   Yeah, he played hard, and yeah, he earned his keep, but if the, just an example, Cardinals come shopping Albert Pujols and say "We want X, Y, Z, C, and Martin Prado," you'd have to think about letting him go (and, yes, I know that situation would never come up).

These are guys that would be traded if and only if the right player were to come along.

I'd rather not see any of them traded, but, as the old baseball cliche goes, you have to give up value to get value.

Now come the biggest part in any trade talk: the complementary pieces.

1. Kenshin Kawakami
   Kenshin Kawakami is neither an elite pitcher nor an immaculate prospect.
   But what he is is a very solid three or four starter in any rotation outside of Atlanta, and that is something a lot of teams would be looking for in the trade market.
2. Cody Johnson
   Power? Check.
   K's? Unfortunately, also a check.
   Cody Johnson is a frustrating guy to evaluate.
   He's got a shot at being the next Adam Dunn, but he could also strike out 250 times.
   With Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer already on the verge of Major League readiness, this is a guy you'd have to call expendable, and if a suitor with a little time to spare in the outfield comes knocking, I'd let him go.
3. Brandon Hicks
   Yet another frustrating prospect.
   His bat has been projected as above-average and his defense as epic.
   So far, he's at the latter and struggling to make it to the former.
   Right now, he would be serviceable as a back-up middle-infielder and could become a lighter-hitting Yunel Escobar.
   You'd like to keep him as an emergency future-3B (catastrophic injury to Jones) or as an option at 2B down the road, but neither of these are things the Braves need at this juncture, so he is expendable,
4. This is going to be a small wad of pitching prospects that could have value in the right deal (in order of best-to-least-value):
   Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Todd Redmond, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes
   Here, I have potential stud, potential stud, good long-relief/5th-starter option, OK ceiling, and Jo-Jo.
   All are guys that could make-or-break a deal (OK, maybe I'm exaggerating about Reyes...but you get my point).

These are the guys that wouldn't catch the headlines in any deal, but they would mean a lot to the teams getting them.

As GM (this IS part of that series), this would be a relatively tough decision.

The talent the Braves have warming in the minors and the talent that's already roaming the Ted make you pause when you're looking at trades, but here is what I propose to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim as my one "blockbuster trade":

Right here.

Yeah, that's right.

I had the audacity to link an old article from Carolina Co-Op.

There, I outlined my ideas thoroughly, so you can read (it was written about two weeks ago, so some of the info is outdated).

Here, I'll give you the gist of what I said.

Braves Get: Juan Rivera, Jason Bulger
Angels Get: Kenshin Kawakami, Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado

Here, I will also just give you the Braves' perspective.

The Braves, while giving up a lot of talent, would be netting what they'll be pursuing this offseason in a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter (Rivera is a consistent .280/25 homer guy when he's been given his shots in crowded outfields) and a bullpen arm (Bulger is a little older, but he has potential).

Unable to find a taker for Lowe, I have also decided to keep him (JJ and Hanson kinda balance him out...right?).

So let's recap the moves by the Cameron Britt-run Braves thus far:

We've traded, all told, Kris Medlen, Kenshin Kawakami, Cody Johnson, Brandon Hicks, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado, James Parr, and a A-ball pitcher of the Marlins' choice for Jorge Cantu (new 1B), Juan Rivera (new LF), Brian Sanches (RHP), and Jason Bulger (RHP).

We've also retained Tim Hudson (as the real-life Braves did) and Derek Lowe, and let Adam LaRoche walk.

Next up: The other Free Agents to-be

The Adam LaRoche Situation in Atlanta and My First Move as GM

As promised, here is the early-offseason decision-making series.

Let's go in the order of the questions I posed in the linked piece above, and start with Adam LaRoche.

LaRoche was, arguably, the best offensive deadline acquisition of any team in the Majors when he was sent to Atlanta from Boston for Casey Kotchman.

As the Braves had hoped, Adam's annual second-half "show-up" happened, as he knocked 12 homers, drove in 40 runs, and hit a robust .325 in 57 games (while committing one error to boot).

As Braves' fans re-discovered the love for their former first baseman, LaRoche seemed to re-discover his love for the town that gave him his first professional shot.

With all of these factors swirling around LaRoche's free-agent-to-be head (along with a Chipper Jones endorsement), it seems like a given that the Braves will retain their late-'09 power threat.

Right?

Not so fast.

As I see it right now, there are two factors that could potentially lead Adam to a city outside of Atlanta: his staple first-half blues, and Freddie Freeman.


LaRoche is and always has been a second-half hitter.

His '09 splits define him perfectly.

In 87 games with Pittsburgh: .247/12 HR/38 XBH
In 63 games with BOS & ATL: .320/12 HR/24 XBH

Yeah...

Maybe you can put it on his comfort in Atlanta, but I put it on the man himself.

Just look at his average and homers in these seasons:

2008: .251 & 11 vs. .304 & 14
2007: .239 & 13 vs. .312 & 8
2006: .251 & 13 vs. .323 & 19

It's not that he wouldn't be GOOD in the first half, it's just that his average wouldn't make him a great option in the heart of the order (3, 4, 5)

That becomes a moot point if the Braves were to get a legit 4 hitter and would be able to move Adam to the six hole to slack (not that he's lazy) for the first half.

Still, how much love would Braves' fans give the son of LaLob is he hits for his .240 with six or seven home runs?

My guess would be: Not very much.


Secondly, you must consider the fact that the Braves currently have a 6'5" big-bopper in waiting sitting in AA in Freddie Freeman.

Granted, the 19-year-old first baseman struggled a bit with Mississippi, but I think a lot of that has to do with a wrist injury and having to play next to Jason Heyward (who is a freak of nature).

I'd put Freddie's ETA at June 2011 right now with the potential for full-time duties to start 2012.

What does that have to do with LaRoche?

Lots.

LaRoche is exiting his 29-year-old season, and will be hitting the Free Agent market looking for two things: years (first and foremost) and green.

These are two things that the Braves, who could have a cheaper stud in a couple of years, may not have available.

With names like Vazquez (at least in 2010), Lowe, and Kawakami eating up significant portions of the Braves always-sub-100MM payroll, LaRoche may not, financially, be a fit.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the Braves would want to offer LaRoche a two-year deal at about 7.5 or 8 MM (that's a pretty generous hometown discount) per season with a third-year club option if they either decide to let Freeman heat up longer or throw him in the "fail" can.

I'd also say that LaRoche is probably looking for a deal in the neighborhood of four years at an annual salary at or around 9.5 or 10 MM per.

Those, from my analysis (and probably your own as well), are two fundamentally different deals.


That, my friends, is why I say this:

I put the odds of an Adam LaRoche return in real life at 33%, and why I choose not to retain him in my GM world.

I think that, even though a mutual desire for each other's services may be there, the two sides are looking for two different things this offseason, and that Rochey isn't going to be waiting for a Braves counter-offer if a team like the Mutts...erm...Mets, Blue Jays, White Sox, or Giants come knocking.

Instead, I look to the free agent market (with meager names like Millar, Branyan-no confidence in this guy, and Nick Johnson available).

Names like Jorge Cantu, Adam Dunn (40 homers and a ridiculous OBP make up for the low average (and 12 MM for his player-type is fair), plus he could man LF with a possibility of Schafer and Heyward in center and right in the future), and Prince Fielder (though this one is highly, highly unlikely-and Freeman would be gone in this scenario) all possibilities on the block.

My choice: Jorge Cantu.

Braves Get: Jorge Cantu, Brian Sanches
Fish Get: James Parr, Brandon Hicks, A pitcher (their choice)

Twenty homers and a .290 average would be expected out of Cantu on a full-time at first base, and at a very reasonable $4-5MM salary (through arbitration), and Sanches (31) could serve as a solid right-handed middle reliever (the Peter Moylan role if the Braves decide to split closing opportunities with the Aussie and O'Flaherty-or just another reliever if the Bravos retain Gonzalez...more on that later in the series).

The Marlins, who have a great eye for talent, would probably be happy with a MLB-ready starter with 3-spot ceiling, a great-fielding middle-infielder with a little pop (especially if they trade Uggla), and their specialty: napping up far-away talent.

So, let's re-cap the offseason so far:
Hudson retained (this is real-life)
LaRoche out, Cantu at first (my head)

Next up: The BIG trade-chips.

With the Hudson Domino Set to Fall, What's Next for the Braves?

If you believe Dave O'Brien, Mark Bowman, and the ever so unreliable Ken Rosenthal, Tim Hudson is set to sign a three-year extension with the Atlanat Braves in the neighborhood of $27MM.
I don't know about you, but that's a big relief.
Locking up an elite (provided he looks like his seven starts at the end of '09) two or three starter for under $10MM is always good.
When you add in the fact that he's locked up for under the salary of two of your potential offseason trade chips (Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez), it's even better.
So that's one thing this offseason down...999,999 more to go, right?
Still, it's good to see one of the issues that was going to affect later moves get close to knocked out before the World Series even ends.
But now come the tough decisions.
Will the Braves try to re-sign Adam LaRoche?
Which of the three big chips (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami) will be on the outs--and for who?
What'll happen to Kelly Johnson, Boone Logan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano?
What guys will get their shots this spring?
These are all things to consider...even if it is only November (at least it will be in about two-and-a-half hours).
In an upcoming series, I will address all of these issues as if I were Frank Wren, and then I will give you my 2010 Atlanta Braves (for, what, about the 18th time?).