Felipe Lopez and the Atlanta Braves: Just Thinking

Let me preface this by saying that I have seen no linkage of any kind between the Atlanta Braves and Felipe Lopez.

This is all speculation/thinking on my part.

OK, now we can start...

With the Johnny Damon saga seemingly headed towards a two year, $14 million resolution in Motown, the Atlanta Braves appear to have been left with a hole that they were willing to commit about $5 million to fixing at the top of the line-up.

Right now, they sit in the same position they found themselves in about six weeks ago when Troy Glaus donned his new jersey during a press conference at Turner Field (save the minor inking of Eric Hinske).

Ever since that time we've heard they the team "likes where they are."

But, apparently, the club liked itself better with a more legitimate lead-off hitter, as evidenced by the previously stated offer to Johnny Damon.

With that ship sailing slowly down the Detroit River, I (and Gavin Andrews) have started thinking about what else is "out there" to fill the hole the Braves have shown their hand at having at the top of the order.

And the one name that keeps coming around is Felipe Lopez.

You know, the dude that just dropped super-agent Scott Boras for the illustrious Beverly Hills Sports Council.

The 29-year-old Lopez seems like the ideal offensive fit to bat at the head of the line-up for the Braves.

His .310 average last season would have been second to only Matt Diaz among players who appeared in at least 100 games last year in Atlanta and his .383 OBP would have landed him right between Chipper Jones and Yunel Escobar for third among players who meet the same criteria previously stated.

Oh, and his six stolen bases would have made him fourth on the team.

Sounds like a lead-off hitter to me (especially since his 155 games played would have bested the best the Braves had to offer, Chipper Jones, by 12 games)

Now, before we move forward here, I'm going to let you know a couple of things.

I know that Felipe is an infielder.

I know the Braves' infield is crowded.

I know that doesn't really seem to make a ton of sense.

But consider this proposition (in the form of a PA announcement at the Ted): "Now batting for the Atlanta Braves, left fielder, Marteeeeeen Prado."

Before you angrily comment about that, I ask that you consider this: Martin Prado plays right field in the Venezuelan Winter Leagues and has mustered a total of five games (four in the bigs) in the outfield in his professional career.

The dude also hasn't proved to be (statistically speaking) the best infielder...posting a -1.4 UZR (I hate this stat too...I find it useful for some comparisons, though) compared to Lopez's 7.8 UZR at second base this past season.

So, how would all of this fall into place?

I think of it this way...

You sign Lopez to a one-year deal in the range of $3-4 MM with an eye to the future (moving Prado back to second and having an OF of McLouth-Schafer-Heyward in 2011).

After that, you trade one of Diaz or Leche to free up a spot (if Heyward wins a job out of Spring Training)...this sort of move would only preempt a move that would come with the OF I mentioned coming in another year.

Then, you set the line-up like this:

S 2B Felipe Lopez
R LF Martin Prado
S 3B Chipper Jones
R 1B Troy Glaus
L C Brian McCann
R SS Yunel Escobar
L CF Nate McLouth
L/R/S RF Heyward/Diaz/Cabrera

Now, you may be asking how that would help the team.

After all, having an inexperienced left fielder (even if he is a solid athlete...and many of us--myself included--thought Dan Uggla could be a fit in left just a month ago) would be compromising to the team's defense (like Loaf wasn't...) and neither of these guys would supply any additional power (Lopez only had nine homers last year).

Well, with a team that will (barring Damon choosing to sign for fewer years and dollars with the Braves) be relying on near total run "production," having one more high average/high OBP guy at the top of the order that has averaged 18 stolen bases per year over the course of his career wouldn't hurt.

Add to that his durability (at least 143 games in every "full" season) and consistency (only one sub-.274 year in any full season and one sub-.342 OBP season), and you would have the only "guaranteed" top-of-the-order option on the Braves' roster.

The questionable attitude's legitimacy is brought into question depending on where you go (though, the Braves have a solid foundation and the "issues" pop up in places that have nothing to play for), so I will leave that hit to people that know the dude.

I'm not saying that the Braves need to go out and ink the inked Puerto Rican, but I do believe that his presence would positively impact the Braves' efforts for postseason baseball.

That impact wouldn't be as great as Damon (who would complicate things a little less and be a very strong clubhouse influence), but, for me, his numbers during full-time play when his efforts mean something speak for themselves when it comes to discussing him as a lead-off option.

In other news...this is the first article that I've written since surpassing the one-year mark on Bleacher Report.

I know, it's hard to believe that people have been reading my baseball poop for over 365 days...and its an experience that can best be likened to this...

OK, maybe it's been better than that...thanks for reading, and Happy Valentine's Day.

Musings on the Atlanta Braves with 24 Days Left Until Spring Training

Another news-less week has left me with little to say that hasn't already been at least mentioned before.

But, with these bland, beaten-to-death topics, old topics, comes some new perspective.

Makes me wish I had some contacts...

Anyway, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm ready for the Johnny Damon saga to end.

It's starting to feel a little bit like Jake Peavy 2.0...with less coverage from the media.

It's not so much that I want the Braves to get him (though it would be nice), I just want the sense of uneasiness and anticipation that comes with a situation like this one to stop.

I just want to see MLB Trade Rumors or hotstove.com (the new site I will be contributing to following Braves transactions--that's called a segue) featuring the headline "_____, Johnny Damon Agree to Terms" so I can either type up a positive reaction or stop checking my e-mail/MLBTR every two minutes.

If this drags out into mid-February, I might blow a gasket...though, I think that I've said that a couple of times now.

Next thing, Jair Jurrjens.

I was reading Mark Bowman's inbox today, and the first question was concerning the need to extend JJ a long-term contract.

Bowman basically said that the Braves will probably end up waiting to see whether or not JJ and, for that matter, Tommy Hanson, are going to be the real deal into the future.

Now, the Braves obviously are too limited by funds to risk dishing out $7-9 million per year over the next four to seven years (I'm thinking Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun length-deals at Cole Hamels salaries) and having either JJ or Big Red going down with catastrophic arm injuries.

But, these two have shown the abilities in their limited big league-showcases of number one's and two's that should only improve.

It's not my money, but I think that big-time extensions need to come in the next two to three years (which is what Bowman basically suggested).

The Braves cannot afford to lose this kind of talent (no s*@%, right?), and locking them up at this stage of their careers is going to be the only way to keep them from going to the New York's, Los Angele's, and Boston's of the world.

After all, Atlanta, especially sans-Cox, won't have the nostalgia it did when the Braves were able to get Greg Maddux and John Smoltz to come/stick around at sub-market value.

Last thing...Stephen Strasbug hype.

I was checking the prospect rankings today and found this little nugget.

If you don't feel like opening that link up, this is what the author, Frankie Piliere, said about the top-five prospects in the game (with their outstanding MiLB stats to the side):

5. Jesus Montero, C, NYY (.389 OBP, 17 homers)
4. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL (.408, 17 homers)
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, TB (.401 OBP, 52 steals)
2. Mike Stanton, OF, FLA (.341 OBP, 28 homers)
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WSH (college)

Now I don't want to sound too whiny about one dude's top-5, but come on.

All five of these guys are special talents, but Heyward at four?

That's not my main gripe, though (it's probably No. 2).

My gripe is the overwhelming amount of feet-kissing for Strasburg.

I understand that he can throw 100 and that he has outstanding breaking stuff for his age (21), but did anyone see what he did in the Arizona Fall League (aka his only professional experience)?

Dude had a 4.26 ERA with 23 Ks in 19 innings.

As a point, Tommy Hanson's 0.63 ERA with 49 Ks in 28.2 innings barely got him into the top-5 in most rankings.

Look, I'm not trying to be overly nit-picky about meaningless projections, but I just don't think a guy can go from college phenom (you know, the place where talent is AA and less) to the next great thing for the Majors.

No doubt, I think this needs to be said, that his pure stuff makes him appealing...but can we let the guy get a few successful pro performances under his belt before putting him ahead of guys like Stanton, Jennings, and Heyward?

And in the words of my good friend Forrest Gump...

Johnny Damon to the Atlanta Braves: Looking More Reasonable

"Can we just let he Johnny Damon -to-Braves rumors die?...

But it's a bit unreasonable (and perfectly designed to bring my hopes
up before crushing them into a burning pile of flames), don't you
think?

I get that Wren could be bluffing by saying he has nothing else to
spend, but with the market being as it is and the Braves being in the market
that they are (i.e. poor attendance), that just doesn't seem to be the
case."

This is a direct quote from this article I wrote just three (soon to be four) days ago.

Now, I'm not saying that I'm rescinding all of that just yet (and the crushing my dreams part seems to be coming true), but I'm now really starting to think about Johnny Damon in Atlanta.

Thinking hard about it.

Even though I still think a Damon return to the Yankees (despite "budget" concerns on the Yankees' part) is coming, several reports have indicated that the Braves, who had virtually said they were done for the offseason not even two weeks ago, are still talking to the veteran outfielder.

One report, Frankie Piliere of FanHouse, even suggests that talks are "progressing."

And with the level of secrecy the Braves have carried this offseason, there is a distinct possibility that Frank Wren and Scott Boras (who have a historically good relationship) could be in a backroom somewhere hammering out the details on a contract (one I would expect to be one year at $4-7 MM with a mutual option for 2011).

As I just said, I think the Yankees are still the likely spot for Damon (and I would probably put the Tigers a little ahead of the Braves as well), but imagine this as the Braves' Opening Day line-up with the formerly-bearded wonder:

LF L Johnny Damon
2B R Martin Prado
3B S Chipper Jones
1B R Troy Glaus
C L Brian McCann
SS R Yunel Escobar
CF L Nate McLouth
RF L OR R Jason Heyward OR Matt Diaz


Obviously, the Braves would be forced to make a move with either Matt Diaz or Melky Cabrera (both of whom have nice, new, arbitration-avoiding contracts...and by moving either of these guys, the Braves would, technically only be adding $2-4 MM to their payroll) before Opening Day if the Braves choose to allow Jason Heyward to start the season in the majors (and before Heyward's call-up, otherwise), but that's not what I'm focusing on here.

What I'm focusing on is Damon's potential for 35-40 doubles and 5-10 triples (with 12-20 stolen bases at a batting average of about .280) and how they would be an awesome addition to a Braves team that features a ton of slap-hitters and only a few big time power threats (maybe three).

I'm looking at the "winning attitude" he would bring to the clubhouse.

And the influence the 36-year-old would have on the left-hand hitting prodigy J-word (shout-out to Michael Arm for that one).

I said in The Atlanta Braves' Outfield in 2010: Who Ya Got?, concerning Damon, that

"... if he were to drop his asking price to maybe one year at six or seven
million...it would make a lot of sense for the Braves."

With Adam LaRoche taking a small deal to go to Arizona (a much bigger power threat than Damon) and Aubrey Huff taking away a serious suitor for Damon in the Giants, it seems that this very thing may have happened.

I'll say it for a third time, though (get that I'm trying to ehphasize this): I am still hesitant to call Damon anything other than a Yankee (even with the chances of that diminishing as I write this), but the whispers going around...well...everywhere, have really gotten me thinking that this could be an almost perfect match for both parties.

The girly arm is not a plus, but extra-base hits and fair speed?

Gimmie (especially if my price guess is close to right).

Provided he grows the beard and hair back, that is.

Rafael Soriano for Jesse Chavez: Braves Drop ex-Closer for...Who?

I learned of the news today in my fourth period AP US History Class.

And when I saw it, I scratched my head a bit.

"So, the Braves just traded what likely would've been the second-hottest closer commodity for...Jesse Chavez?"

I'm sure many of you shared the same sentiment.

So, I did what comes natural.

I googled Jesse Chavez.

This is what I saw: 26 years old, only one sub-three ERA year in the minors (2.22 in eleven appearances a couple of years back), and lots of home runs.

"What's this crap?!?!"

I was a bit perplexed, so I sat back and thought.

"Elite--for ehh...experience--for not so much...expensive...EXPENSIVE...THAT'S IT!"

It was then that I began to put all of the pieces together that had fallen down in the past few hours following Rafael Soriano accepting the Braves' arbitration offer.

Every team that was interested in trading for Soriano knew that the Braves were desperately (no matter what they said) trying to become sans-Soriano.

Every team also knew that they didn't want to be pegged with all of his eventual salary PLUS loose a couple of descent pieces.

So, a day passed, and most team were probably saying things like "Frankie, we'll give you good Prospect A as long as you eat half of the salary the arbitrator hands it out," or "Wren, we'll give you Bat B if you eat half of Soriano's salary AND throw in one of your bench players or MiLB pitchers."

Then the Rays probably came along and said "Hey, here's a guy to give you some depth where you're losing it...and we'll take on his entire post-arbitration salary."

When you weigh the options, the option the Rays offered really isn't half bad.

While it's not likely as good as what the Braves' scouting team could have turned the two picks Raffy would've netted into, it's better than A) eating a pretty big chunk salary for someone else, or B) non-tendering Soriano and getting jack-squat.

While this certainly isn't a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination, at some point, you have to acknowledge that there would be no David Wright's coming in, and that the Braves really don't have the financial flexibility to keep all of the guys they have AND add a couple of other pieces.

This move, despite the small return, gives the Braves the ability to go get two descent-to-above-average players to man left and first base.

For that, I like it.

What Would it Take to Get Carl Crawford to Brandish a Tomahawk?

For those of you who have actually looked over my profile, you know that Carl Crawford listed first on my Short List under "Favorite Athletes".

To expand on that positioning, Carl Crawford is my favorite baseball player/athlete/celebrity/everything.

Speed, defense, average, a little pop, and hustle.

What's not to love?

So, when I saw this article on the St. Pete Time's site, you can believe that a smile ran across my face.

Now, that piece says that the Braves and Mets have only expressed interest in the 2009 All Star Game MVP.

That doesn't mean that anything in imminent, nor does it mean that any names have been exchanged in trade negotiations.

I know that.

But, it is interesting to think about what it would take to acquire the left-handed outfielder.

Let's start by talking about why this implications this would have for Atlanta.

Pros: Speed, Hitting, Fielding, 'Swag'

Carl Crawford brings all of those things to that table.

The dude has epic speed (362 stolen bases in six-and-a-half years), which is something that the Braves have been lacking since Rafael Furcal's final season in '05.

The guy is also a perennial .300 hitter who is a lock for 15 homers (not exceptional, but the speed, average, and doubles and triples (36) make up for it) who can get to a lot of balls.

Put all of that together, and you have a complete package.

And add that package to Heyward and McLouth(possibly down the road), and you have the best outfield in the National League.

He may not fill the "right-handed, power-hitting bat" card, but he is a dynamic outfielder who has been great for his entire career.

(sorry about the bit of bias there)

Cons: Package(s), One Year?

We all know about the Floridian mantra (since it applies to both the Rays and Marlins).

Pay less, trade more.

That's why this rumor even has the bit of legs it possesses.

But it's also what makes this deal questionable.

The Rays will (likely) not accept any veterans with salaries exceeding about $6 MM.

We're talking the Julio Tehran's, Jordan Schafer's, and Craig Kimbrel's of the world (but not necessarily those guys).

And with only one year left on his contract, is he worth that type of talent?

That's up for debate...


Now, let's discuss a potential deal.

As we just established, the Rays will likely be seeking top-flight talent.

For only one year of Crawford, however, I think any deal could be leveraged into one blue-chip prospect, and three "above-average" prospects (remember, Mark Teixeira, with 1.5 years left, came over for five prospects).

So, this is, from the Braves' perspective, as far as I would go if trading for Crawford (and Crawford only) this offseason:

Braves Get: Carl Crawford, Ramon Ramirez
Rays Get: Julio Tehran, Kris Medlen, Jordan Schafer, Brandon Hicks

There's your primo, possible Neftali Feliz-type regret, good MLB-ready arm, MLB-ready replacement (if they do choose to deal BJ Upton as well), and some organizational depth for the Rays.

Add in the fact that this type of move would absolutely require the departure of Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez (it was probably going to happen anyway, but still...) and you have some questions to ask yourself (all asked as if I were Frank Wren) of you want to pull the trigger:

Are we sure we can get this guy to stick around? (a must)
Could we wait until July and possibly give up a little bit less?
Can we compete next offseason if he were to become a free agent?
Will this guy's skill set age well?


My ten cents?

Wait.

As much as a guy like Crawford would bring to the table, the risk-over-reward factor would make many fans (including myself) flash back to the summer of '07 when Mark T. came over.

With retain-ability and organizational depth both issues in any blockbuster like this, I would probably drop the gun and walk away.

Besides, the Braves have just as much of a shot at keeping him (in a trade) as they would acquiring him through free agency.

As hyped as I may have seemed at the beginning of this, thinking about all of that talent going to the Rays really took the wind out of my sails.

As I said...wait and try to get him in a year (by then, you may no longer need him for the offense if Cody Johnson, Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer, and Freddie Freeman all show signs of panning out).

Billy Wagner in Atlanta: A Perfect Fit?

With Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez's departures nearly a given in Atlanta, the Braves have to look towards the Free Agent market for their closer.

(Well, they don't have to, but who is going to trade away a legitimate closer this offseason?)

Names that jump out include Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Jose Valverde.

But combinations of ability and contractual issues make these guys relatively poor fits.

One name that has been established through various media outlets for the Braves, though, is Billy Wagner.

The 38-year-old lefty has drawn interest from various teams and, according to MLB Trade Rumors, is prepared to begin fielding offers next week.

The Hot Stove's beginning to heat up, no?

The one hitch that comes along with Wagner is that he is coming back from Tommy John Surgery.

But with a success rate in the 90's for TJS and a solid 17-game exposition (1.72 ERA, 26:8 K:BB, in 15.2 innings) at the end of the '09 season, the qualms many should have should be quieted a bit.

That's not to say that he should be given a $15 MM annual salary, it just means that the operation shouldn't stop anyone from making him an offer.

Anyway, here's a few reasons as to why Wagner makes sense for the Braves:


1. Despite his type-A (if the Red Sox choose to offer him arbitration), the Braves need not worry.

They'll be getting four picks from whomever signs Gonzo and Soriano, so that is not an issue.


2. According to David O'Brien, Wagner is a "FOC (Friend of Chipper) and has made it known that he'd like to pitch for Bobby Cox."

Does that necessarily mean that he'll take a discount?

No, but it does mean that the Braves have a little leverage over some other clubs.


3. He's only (39) saves away from John Franco for the all-time lead for most saves as a left-handed pitcher.

I'm not naming that for the novelty of having Wagner set a record in a Braves' uni.

I'm saying that that means that he'll want the ball.

Then again, Bob Wickman also wanted the ball...just only in save situations (but Wagner didn't record a save in his late-season return with K-Rod and Papelbon ahead of him and didn't complain, so...).



Are there better options on the market?

Yeah, and two of them will be departing Atlanta (most likely) in the coming weeks.

But there is no other option out there that makes as much sense for the Braves.

The team saw Peter Moylan succeed in '09 after his surgery, and I would expect Wagner to do the same.

The dude is still nasty, as evidenced by his K:BB above, and has always been "mean" enough to take the ball in the ninth.

Other clubs (Cubs, Tigers, other clubs with closer-holes since he doesn't want to be a set-up-only guy) may come knocking with more cash, but the Braves come knocking with Chipper, Bobby Cox's last go-'round, and a Championship-caliber rotation (and an offense that's primed to be the same once a move or two is made).

If I'm Frank Wren, I say "Hey Bean [Stringfellow, Wagner's agent and holder of the "best name for an agent in baseball" award], how does Billy feel about a two-year contract at $15 million guaranteed to play here in Atlanta?

"We'll even throw in a third-year mutual option and performance-based incentives each year along the way that could bring each up to...say...about $9 MM?

"C'mon."

(Okay, maybe the negotiations would go a little deeper than that...but you get my point)

Assembling the Atlanta Braves' 2010 Roster

For those of you who follow me, you know that I've been taking a close look at the Braves' offseason options over the past few weeks.

I made one swooping prediction/suggestion about a month ago.

And looking back now...I hate it.

And in another month, I'll hate this one.

But it's all in good fun.

So, let's recap what I've done (remember, I'm playing GM) thus far.

I'll highlight, in italics, the money associated with each move.


Players Acquired: Jorge Cantu (3.5 MM), Juan Rivera (3.25 MM), Jason Bulger (~400 K), Brian Sanches (~400 K).

Players Departing: Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Brandon Hicks, Randall Delgado, James Parr, a MiLB pitcher of the Marlins choice (combined for a total MLB impact of ~400 K), Kenshin Kawakami (the Braves would be eating part of his salary, so about $4 MM departing), Adam LaRoche ($7 MM)

That's a difference of -3.85 for the MLB payroll.


That's what I've done so far, now, let's talk about what'll be happening elsewhere on the Braves' roster.

Keep in mind now: the Braves had a payroll of about $96.7 MM in '09, and a significant rise shouldn't be expected.

Let's start out with the arbitration-eligible players (these are a what I would do).

Matt Diaz-- This one's really a no-brainer. Matt Diaz was a major part of the Braves' second-half run in '09 and has always been a more-than-serviceable fourth outfielder. Even with Jason Heyward at or near Major-League readiness, Matt Diaz will be an important piece to the Braves' puzzle. Coming off of a .313 year in which he slugged 13 homers and stole 12 bags, I expect a rise in his $1.2 MM salary...I'm thinking $2.5 MM for '10 (a rise of $1.3 MM).

Kelly Johnson-- This decision is a little tougher. Kelly Johnson plays hard...but plays so inconsistently that he makes you want to puke. That trait cost him his job to Martin Prado and does not bode well for a role as a bench player. I think he'll be non-tendered (he's not a Type-A or -B, so there's not point in risking him taking the offer) and his $2.8 MM salary will be off the books.

Boone Logan-- With Eric O'Flaherty stepping up and having an outstanding campaign in '09, Logan was a forgotten man. His 5.19 ERA may look scary, but he was more than passable as a straight-up LOOGY (with a .231 average against him from lefties). In most situations, I'd let a guy like Boone walk, but he's only 25 and has a good (not great) left-handed arm. He only made the league minimum (~400K) this past season, and with only 20 games to go on, I don't see how he could get much of a raise (in other words, no noticeable difference, just a guy who could make an impact in '10)

Ryan Church-- Ryan Church played well after coming over from the Mets. But, injuries got him at the end of the year, and his numbers (.270-ish with single-digit homers) and defense are easily replaceable (Jordan Schafer, anyone?). He and his $2.8 MM salary should be hitting the road.

Peter Moylan-- Do I really need to explain this one? He'll be back. His '09 salary was the league minimum, and I expect no less than $2 MM coming his way in 2010 ($1.6 MM increase).

Rafael Soriano-- Despite his performance in '09 (which was very good), I think Soriano will be too hot of a commodity on the free agent market for the Braves to retain (as in they'll try to sign him but someone else will outbid them--100+ Ks in ~75 innings is going to be in high demand). I think the Braves offer him a small increase over his $6.5 MM from '09, he'll reject it, and the Braves will get two draft picks when some one signs him.

Mike Gonzalez-- Like his late-inning partner in crime above him, Mike Gonzalez was very good for the Braves in the '09 campaign. He made $3.4 MM for his services and will likely stick his foot in the free agency waters. I can see the Braves offering him about $5MM before he rejects and heads towards FA. However, I would be willing to enter a mini-bidding war with other teams and use the team's potential to leverage him into a 2 year, $6.8 MM per contract ($3.4 MM increase). Oh, and I would hope he accepts the offer of $5 MM to stay, I'm just saying I would be willing to go to $6.8 MM on the open market (and we'll use that to tally the dollars).

All of these moves means a net of: -$5.6 MM (and two draft picks)

Oh, and lest we forget Garret Anderson's $2.5 MM salary coming off books along with Greg Norton's 800K.

That's a total of $11.95 MM to work with on the open market (arbitration changes and trade additions included).

Not too bad.

Now, in my world as GM, this is what we're looking at for the start of the '09 campaign (a + indicates replacing a hole left by a departing player, a ++ means a $400 K salary for a departing player player's replacement, ? means "could be exchanged for another ?"):

C Brian McCann
1B Jorge Cantu +
2B Martin Prado
3B Chipper Jones
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Juan Rivera +
CF Nate McLouth
RF Matt Diaz

INF Omar Infante
OF Jordan Schafer ++
OF Jason Heyward? ++
PH Brooks Conrad ++

Rotation
1 Tim Hudson
2 Javier Vazquez
3 Jair Jurrjens
4 Tommy Hanson
5 Derek Lowe

Bullpen
LRP Todd Redmond (exiting Medlen was the same)
RHP Jason Bulger
RHP Brian Sanches
LHP Eric O'Flaherty
LOOGY Boone Logan?
RHSU Peter Moylan
LHSU Mike Gonzalez
CL _____________

We've already established that Soriano will command quite a bit (my guess will be $10 MM-which some team will undoubetly offer him).

And the only viable option on the market is Jose Valverde (who will also cost a lot).

This one has me truly stumped.

Would you push harder to keep Soriano, or go hard after Valverde (or someone else).

You've seen the money the Braves have under my scenario, tell me what you think.

(Based on the results of this open-ended question, I will assemble my 2010 Atlanta Braves on a pretty little slide show--I really don't know what I should do)

Chips on the Table: The Braves' "Tradeable" Players

So, we've already gotten through the Adam LaRoche situation.

Now, let's talk about the guys the Braves could be shipping out for some hole-filling.

Here, in my mind, are the guys on the block from the Braves' '09 payroll.

1. Derek Lowe
   Bad contract coming of a bad year; this one's pretty simple.
   But who would want him?
   Brewers? Cubs? Mets?
   You've gotta think "money-absorbing" over "talent-laden" in Lowe's situation when you're looking at potential suitors.

Yeah...that's pretty much it.

Coming off an 86-win season, you don't want to mess too much up.

Here are the potential "centerpieces" in deals for a middle-of-the-order hitter.

1. Javier Vazquez
   Spectacular career-year in '09, and, at this point, his value has never been higher.
   Why trade him then?
   For me, Vazquez's '09 is too much unlike his career numbers to tell me that he'll sustain it for an extended period of time.
   It's either address the team's needs now, or wait until mid-July when Vazquez may have a 4.00 ERA (on the same hand, he may have a 1.02 with another team and make me look like an idiot).
   You've gotta sell-high on this guy if you are given the opportunity to get a legit-hitter.
2. Kris Medlen
   It's not so much that Medlen would be a "centerpiece" as much as he would be a "very tempting piece to get the other guys to take less."
   He's young with a live arm and experienced success in his stint in the Big Leagues; or just what a rebuilding team with a large contract on the books is looking for.
3. Martin Prado
   Prado's situation, in my opinion, is like Medlen's and Vazquez's rolled into one.
   He wouldn't be the one guy that could almost get a deal done on his own as much as he is, when paired with another guy, an enticing entity.
   Add to that the potential for a one-and-done-year career, and you have another perfect sell-high opportunity.
   Yeah, he played hard, and yeah, he earned his keep, but if the, just an example, Cardinals come shopping Albert Pujols and say "We want X, Y, Z, C, and Martin Prado," you'd have to think about letting him go (and, yes, I know that situation would never come up).

These are guys that would be traded if and only if the right player were to come along.

I'd rather not see any of them traded, but, as the old baseball cliche goes, you have to give up value to get value.

Now come the biggest part in any trade talk: the complementary pieces.

1. Kenshin Kawakami
   Kenshin Kawakami is neither an elite pitcher nor an immaculate prospect.
   But what he is is a very solid three or four starter in any rotation outside of Atlanta, and that is something a lot of teams would be looking for in the trade market.
2. Cody Johnson
   Power? Check.
   K's? Unfortunately, also a check.
   Cody Johnson is a frustrating guy to evaluate.
   He's got a shot at being the next Adam Dunn, but he could also strike out 250 times.
   With Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer already on the verge of Major League readiness, this is a guy you'd have to call expendable, and if a suitor with a little time to spare in the outfield comes knocking, I'd let him go.
3. Brandon Hicks
   Yet another frustrating prospect.
   His bat has been projected as above-average and his defense as epic.
   So far, he's at the latter and struggling to make it to the former.
   Right now, he would be serviceable as a back-up middle-infielder and could become a lighter-hitting Yunel Escobar.
   You'd like to keep him as an emergency future-3B (catastrophic injury to Jones) or as an option at 2B down the road, but neither of these are things the Braves need at this juncture, so he is expendable,
4. This is going to be a small wad of pitching prospects that could have value in the right deal (in order of best-to-least-value):
   Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Todd Redmond, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes
   Here, I have potential stud, potential stud, good long-relief/5th-starter option, OK ceiling, and Jo-Jo.
   All are guys that could make-or-break a deal (OK, maybe I'm exaggerating about Reyes...but you get my point).

These are the guys that wouldn't catch the headlines in any deal, but they would mean a lot to the teams getting them.

As GM (this IS part of that series), this would be a relatively tough decision.

The talent the Braves have warming in the minors and the talent that's already roaming the Ted make you pause when you're looking at trades, but here is what I propose to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim as my one "blockbuster trade":

Right here.

Yeah, that's right.

I had the audacity to link an old article from Carolina Co-Op.

There, I outlined my ideas thoroughly, so you can read (it was written about two weeks ago, so some of the info is outdated).

Here, I'll give you the gist of what I said.

Braves Get: Juan Rivera, Jason Bulger
Angels Get: Kenshin Kawakami, Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado

Here, I will also just give you the Braves' perspective.

The Braves, while giving up a lot of talent, would be netting what they'll be pursuing this offseason in a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter (Rivera is a consistent .280/25 homer guy when he's been given his shots in crowded outfields) and a bullpen arm (Bulger is a little older, but he has potential).

Unable to find a taker for Lowe, I have also decided to keep him (JJ and Hanson kinda balance him out...right?).

So let's recap the moves by the Cameron Britt-run Braves thus far:

We've traded, all told, Kris Medlen, Kenshin Kawakami, Cody Johnson, Brandon Hicks, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado, James Parr, and a A-ball pitcher of the Marlins' choice for Jorge Cantu (new 1B), Juan Rivera (new LF), Brian Sanches (RHP), and Jason Bulger (RHP).

We've also retained Tim Hudson (as the real-life Braves did) and Derek Lowe, and let Adam LaRoche walk.

Next up: The other Free Agents to-be

The Adam LaRoche Situation in Atlanta and My First Move as GM

As promised, here is the early-offseason decision-making series.

Let's go in the order of the questions I posed in the linked piece above, and start with Adam LaRoche.

LaRoche was, arguably, the best offensive deadline acquisition of any team in the Majors when he was sent to Atlanta from Boston for Casey Kotchman.

As the Braves had hoped, Adam's annual second-half "show-up" happened, as he knocked 12 homers, drove in 40 runs, and hit a robust .325 in 57 games (while committing one error to boot).

As Braves' fans re-discovered the love for their former first baseman, LaRoche seemed to re-discover his love for the town that gave him his first professional shot.

With all of these factors swirling around LaRoche's free-agent-to-be head (along with a Chipper Jones endorsement), it seems like a given that the Braves will retain their late-'09 power threat.

Right?

Not so fast.

As I see it right now, there are two factors that could potentially lead Adam to a city outside of Atlanta: his staple first-half blues, and Freddie Freeman.


LaRoche is and always has been a second-half hitter.

His '09 splits define him perfectly.

In 87 games with Pittsburgh: .247/12 HR/38 XBH
In 63 games with BOS & ATL: .320/12 HR/24 XBH

Yeah...

Maybe you can put it on his comfort in Atlanta, but I put it on the man himself.

Just look at his average and homers in these seasons:

2008: .251 & 11 vs. .304 & 14
2007: .239 & 13 vs. .312 & 8
2006: .251 & 13 vs. .323 & 19

It's not that he wouldn't be GOOD in the first half, it's just that his average wouldn't make him a great option in the heart of the order (3, 4, 5)

That becomes a moot point if the Braves were to get a legit 4 hitter and would be able to move Adam to the six hole to slack (not that he's lazy) for the first half.

Still, how much love would Braves' fans give the son of LaLob is he hits for his .240 with six or seven home runs?

My guess would be: Not very much.


Secondly, you must consider the fact that the Braves currently have a 6'5" big-bopper in waiting sitting in AA in Freddie Freeman.

Granted, the 19-year-old first baseman struggled a bit with Mississippi, but I think a lot of that has to do with a wrist injury and having to play next to Jason Heyward (who is a freak of nature).

I'd put Freddie's ETA at June 2011 right now with the potential for full-time duties to start 2012.

What does that have to do with LaRoche?

Lots.

LaRoche is exiting his 29-year-old season, and will be hitting the Free Agent market looking for two things: years (first and foremost) and green.

These are two things that the Braves, who could have a cheaper stud in a couple of years, may not have available.

With names like Vazquez (at least in 2010), Lowe, and Kawakami eating up significant portions of the Braves always-sub-100MM payroll, LaRoche may not, financially, be a fit.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that the Braves would want to offer LaRoche a two-year deal at about 7.5 or 8 MM (that's a pretty generous hometown discount) per season with a third-year club option if they either decide to let Freeman heat up longer or throw him in the "fail" can.

I'd also say that LaRoche is probably looking for a deal in the neighborhood of four years at an annual salary at or around 9.5 or 10 MM per.

Those, from my analysis (and probably your own as well), are two fundamentally different deals.


That, my friends, is why I say this:

I put the odds of an Adam LaRoche return in real life at 33%, and why I choose not to retain him in my GM world.

I think that, even though a mutual desire for each other's services may be there, the two sides are looking for two different things this offseason, and that Rochey isn't going to be waiting for a Braves counter-offer if a team like the Mutts...erm...Mets, Blue Jays, White Sox, or Giants come knocking.

Instead, I look to the free agent market (with meager names like Millar, Branyan-no confidence in this guy, and Nick Johnson available).

Names like Jorge Cantu, Adam Dunn (40 homers and a ridiculous OBP make up for the low average (and 12 MM for his player-type is fair), plus he could man LF with a possibility of Schafer and Heyward in center and right in the future), and Prince Fielder (though this one is highly, highly unlikely-and Freeman would be gone in this scenario) all possibilities on the block.

My choice: Jorge Cantu.

Braves Get: Jorge Cantu, Brian Sanches
Fish Get: James Parr, Brandon Hicks, A pitcher (their choice)

Twenty homers and a .290 average would be expected out of Cantu on a full-time at first base, and at a very reasonable $4-5MM salary (through arbitration), and Sanches (31) could serve as a solid right-handed middle reliever (the Peter Moylan role if the Braves decide to split closing opportunities with the Aussie and O'Flaherty-or just another reliever if the Bravos retain Gonzalez...more on that later in the series).

The Marlins, who have a great eye for talent, would probably be happy with a MLB-ready starter with 3-spot ceiling, a great-fielding middle-infielder with a little pop (especially if they trade Uggla), and their specialty: napping up far-away talent.

So, let's re-cap the offseason so far:
Hudson retained (this is real-life)
LaRoche out, Cantu at first (my head)

Next up: The BIG trade-chips.

With the Hudson Domino Set to Fall, What's Next for the Braves?

If you believe Dave O'Brien, Mark Bowman, and the ever so unreliable Ken Rosenthal, Tim Hudson is set to sign a three-year extension with the Atlanat Braves in the neighborhood of $27MM.
I don't know about you, but that's a big relief.
Locking up an elite (provided he looks like his seven starts at the end of '09) two or three starter for under $10MM is always good.
When you add in the fact that he's locked up for under the salary of two of your potential offseason trade chips (Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez), it's even better.
So that's one thing this offseason down...999,999 more to go, right?
Still, it's good to see one of the issues that was going to affect later moves get close to knocked out before the World Series even ends.
But now come the tough decisions.
Will the Braves try to re-sign Adam LaRoche?
Which of the three big chips (Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami) will be on the outs--and for who?
What'll happen to Kelly Johnson, Boone Logan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano?
What guys will get their shots this spring?
These are all things to consider...even if it is only November (at least it will be in about two-and-a-half hours).
In an upcoming series, I will address all of these issues as if I were Frank Wren, and then I will give you my 2010 Atlanta Braves (for, what, about the 18th time?).

Examining What Nelson Cruz Would Bring to the Braves

So far, we've looked at two names that the Atlanta Braves could pursue this offseason in Prince Fielder and Juan Rivera.

We'll continue in the Juan Rivera-Esq direction (as in realistic options) with this piece.

Now, I know that I made a small case against him in the Juan Rivera article, but today we are going to talk about Texas Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz.

In his first full-time role with the Rangers in 2009, Cruz posted a very respectable .260/.332/.524 line with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
Perfect fit for the Braves, right?

Right-handed, powerful, can run...what do the Rangers want?

Well, I have some reservations that need to be addressed before I'm willing to say "gimmie gimmie gimmie"

Consider these facts:

1. Nelson Cruz played the majority of his games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (obviously).
   Here are his Home/Road splits for average, slugging percentage, and homers:
   .286/.232, .568/.478, 18/15
   By the way, about 44% of balls he put in play were in the air (his home park helped that average, no question).
   Now, Cruz was by no means "useless" on the road, but he wasn't what he was at home (wow, bad crammer).
2. He's not exactly "young."
   One of the big things you hear about when Braves' fans talk about Cruz is that he's a "young" power option.
   I'm not saying that 28-going-on-29 is "old," but you have to consider this when you look at his last few seasons.
   From his 25-year-old to his 27-year-old seasons, Cruz averaged a home run every 25 at-bats with a .251 average.
   All of a sudden (granted, when hitting an age where many players hit their prime), he goes down to a homer every 13 at-bats while hitting .260.
   Not that he couldn't do what he did in '09 again, but you have to admit that Cruz, in his past-prospect stage of development, may have experienced a fluke.
3. The strikeouts.
   Even with the superb 2009, he had a strikeout (approximately) once every four at-bats.
   As a reference point for Braves' fans, Jeff Francoeur had one every 6.5 at-bats.
   Do I need to say any more?
4. The durability.
   In addition to having his own, if you will, shortcomings as a player, he has also had to deal with issues with his body.
   All of his stats came in 128 games (which make them a little more impressive).
   That came from shared time in the outfield with Marlon Byrd, Andruw Jones, Josh Hamilton, and others as well as, as manager Ron Washington said, his body breaking down.
   That's not to say that he hasn't built up strength or that he wouldn't last 145 games, but it makes you wonder.

Let me get one thing straight, though: Cruz is talented and would fit nicely, I just cant say that I'm 100% sure 2009 wasn't a fluke.

OK, now we have my objections out of the way, let's talk about what would have to ha pen to get him.

We all know about the Braves' situation: too much pitching, not enough pop, blah, blah, blah.

Let's talk about how Texas' outfield looks next season.

I think it's safe to assume that Julio Borbon and Josh Hamilton (if healthy) are locks for the Rangers outfield.

Cruz is on the fringe.

Not because he wasn't valuable or anything, but because he could bring back a nice package of prospects if the Rangers choose to trade him.

If they do, where does that leave them?

They don't have any CLOSE outfield prospects of blue-chip status (Engel Beltre has only seen four games in AA), and they would be strapped for someone to fill the void left by Cruz in their outfield.

That is, unless they retain Marlon Byrd.

That'll be the key, in my opinion, to any hope of a Braves prospects-for-Cruz swap.

If they keep Byrd, which is what I'm banking on, the Braves could probably get away with a little less than what would be required to get him if the Rangers choose not to retain him.

Still, I think a good mixture of OF potential and MLB-ready and mid-potential pitching would be needed to get Cruz (unless the Rangers want to thank the Braves for the Teixeira deal and take a little less...and I just cried a little thinking of Neftali Feliz).

Here's the Deal:

Rangers get: Kris Medlen (RHP), Todd Redmond (RHP), Cody Johnson (OF), David Francis (RHP)
Braves get: Nelson Cruz

As I've said before: I think Kris Medlen will be the centerpiece of any deal for a bat.

You have to let go of talent to get any in return, and Kris Medlen definitely has that.

Redmond would be a nice swing-man for the Rangers, while Cody Johnson and David Francis are both mid-to-high potential prospects that will be (or soon will be) blocked.

The Braves get their outfielder, the Rangers get more of the Braves' prospects.

Bottom line: While I certainly don't think that Nelson Cruz is the best option available to the Braves (Juan Rivera-for the consistency, Matt Holliday-for being Matt Holliday, etc.), there is no doubt that he could make a huge impact in Atlanta.

Now, let's hear some opinions.

Another Angel in the Outfield: Making the Case for Juan Rivera in Atlanta

We all know what the Braves will be after this offseason (for those of you who don't, it's a right-handed power threat to stick between Brian McCann and Chipper Jones).

Right now, it's wide open as to who they'll go after.

So, let's compare two players.

One of these names, Player A, has been moving around the Braves' Blogosphere at the speed of light.

The other, Player B...not a peep.

I will use AGE (in 2010)/G/AVG/OBP/SLG/HR/2B/3B/SB/BB:K to compare them.


Player A 29/128/.260/.332/.524/33/21/1/20/49:118


Player B 31/138/.287/.332/.478/25/24/1/0/36:57


Who do you take?

Player A is going to give you more power, but Player B is going to make fewer outs.

OK, now take this into consideration: Player A plays the majority of his games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington while Player B does most of his work at Angel Stadium.

What about now?

I don't know about you, but I think I take Player B.

And now, if you haven't already figured out who they are, Player A is Nelson Cruz, and Player B is the man I referenced in my title, Juan Rivera.

Now, I understand that the "getability" of Rivera may be less than that of Cruz, but the Angel's one weakness at the start of this season was the readiness of their Minor League pitching prospects.


Add to that John Lackey's pending free agency (and likely departure), I think it's safe to assume that they'll be on the hunt for both Major League-ready pitching and Minor Leaguers to re-stock whatever they'll be losing to their big club.


With that in mind, here's a deal that could net the Braves Juan Rivera:



Angels Get: Kenshin Kawakami, Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Randall Delgado
Braves Get: Juan Rivera, Jason Bulger



This deal gives the Braves what they need: a good power bat (with a good track record for success) locked up at a reasonable contract-2/9 left on his current deal and the replacement for Moylan when he transitions to closer (my gut now says they they'll let Gonzo walk if he declines arbitration and they'll flat let Soriano go).


Rivera, especially with a transition to the NL, should be a lock for 25 homers, and 31-year-old Lawrenceville, Georgia native Jason Bulger should only improve on his numbers from this year (3.65 ERA/65.2INN/68Ks) with the same transition.


The Angels get a descent starter until some more of their youngsters are ready, a younger replacement for Bulger, a DH-in-the-making, and a very good pitching prospect to fill their previously mentioned voids.


The biggest complication I could see blocking this deal would be Bobby Abreu.


Right now, Rivera is pretty much a lock in left field for the Angels.


If the team fails to bring back Abreu, then his position would be solidified even further since their best OF prospect, Peter Bourjos, is still likely another season or two away.


However, if Abreu comes back to man right again next season, they may be willing to give one of their fringe outfielders more time OR may be willing to let go of Rivera for one of the more attractive free agents.


The Braves would be giving up a pretty significant chunk of their minor league stable, but would still be retaining their core of Heyward, Freeman, Hanson, Tehran, etc.


If the Braves ARE serious about contending in 2010, this deal makes a lot of sense.


As I will say in all of these posts (for the blog)/articles (for B/R), I have no insider information whatsoever.


Everything I say stems from personal analysis of rosters, rankings, etc., and my conclusions are based off of this analysis.


If you disagree or feel that one side or another is getting too much, let me know.


I'll consider all suggestions that I deem logical.